'The Undesigned Chapter', Pt 1.

The limits to Growth. 30-year update.

by Meadows – Randers - Meadows , (p. 2004)

(/Book recommendation 23 1/2)

Although we almost promised to focus merely for MSW-questions in particular on this ongoing chapter (the unplanned / undesigned) it feels like we're at the moment not having anything especial to say...excluding the crash-boom-bangs and hob-a-bob-lula-ba-loos. May turn out more fruitful observations on following chapters, but for now here's this book from the more global issues on the current (21st) century.

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When at first viewing the book it is noticed that we've kind of earlier slipped from paying attention to some of the aspects discussed (at these scenarios of the worlds expectable/ongoing development). Reading the scenarios now (And not familiar with the original 1973 version from 'Limits to growth', and actually I wasn't even knowing of the revised version been published on 1992; 'Beyond the limits'.), it perhaps gives a feeling that books contents, at least partially, reflect the atmospheres and frustration for climatopolitics on turn of century – like much writing does, from some recent years. But these presented scenarios appear of course based on longer time perspectives and modelling/thinking, not needed to be considered as tied for any particular recent time or years. How anyone may wish to emphasize any of the aspects may vary, personally I fx have perhaps more optimistic expectations of the modern technologies replacing the older industries and reducing problems from the pollution (once the the proper technologies are first taken in uses adequate fast).

Writers of course point out the fact that these are computer calculated scenarios and don't represent any foretold visions from how the future will turn out. Rather it, perhaps we should notice, can be read as views on what seems assumed possible, or even of which quite logically (by some part) can be expected taking place on coming decades at this century. However, these 'picks' below may also appear a little bit focused on the more negative developmental trends. Obviously, our brief combining sentences here don't give much chances for any precise examinations of books content, so we're just (almost randomly) picking few separated aspects from text that seem interesting and doesn't do bad for anyone little think of and about. (Of course, rather more recommendable also is checking the book itself. For anyone not having time at the moment, however, it is noticed that next up-to-date revision of these scenarios seems promised around 2012.)

Selected sentences below appear as (our own) retranslations for english. It would of course be more appropriate seek the original text at hands in this purpose, but since only presenting few excerpts detached from their main text (not very recommendable practice either, yet these only briefly cited here to give some idea of various issues discussed...), I didn't bother for that at this purpose. But, if you wish to cite any of these following separate sentences/observations, from whatever reason, be sure to check the original text for that use. (Possibly, maybe, its even available on-line.) (W-G.)

'...Oil, certainly will be the first of fossil fuels to run out. (At the moment) many might think that with aid of the natural gas current energy production levels can be maintained while changing for the newer energy sources. Yet, historically it has taken some 50 years for humans to move on from one primary energy source to another. In the meantime prosperity at the world might diminish, resulting from the changes in climate or the limitations to the uses of fossil fuels.'

'People living in the developed countries, by average, consume roughly estimated 8-10 times more metals than those who live in the developing world.'

'In the recyclement of used materials only the final and easiest part at the material flow is been handled. Rule of the thumb says that for each ton of waste generated by consumers, in the production process has some 5 tons of waste been generated, and about 20 tons of waste where the natural source was originally dug up, pumped, cut or cultivated. Best way to diminish these (waste) flows is to extend products general life-time and reduce the use of material.'

'There isn't a country in the world that would have solved the nuclear waste disposal problem. […] The nature has no ways processing that waste for the less harmless, and the nuclear waste dissolve according their own timing, which can take decades, centuries or even millennium(s). As by-product from the nuclear energy production wastes generate steadily. It is kept on safe deposits underground or at the cooling tanks on reactor sites, with the hope that someday the humans would discover a place where place it for. Therefore appears not surprising that use of nuclear energies is largely distrusted.'

'...Fossil fuels however, appear surprisingly limited, especially as their use increases exponentially. Them shouldn't be wasted. On the history of humanity, the era of using the fossil energy sources represents only brief moment - as some example on historical time-lines it can be compared for the blink of an eye.'

'Luckily, nowadays the environmental pollution isn't anymore considered as representing any signs from the progressive developments.'

'...Our scenarios doesn't lead us to a conclusion that the current level or 10-20 per cent higher levels of consumption would appear sustainable, either that doubling this level would unavoidably have catastrophic consequences. Nevertheless, we conclude that a sustainably organized system could offer a level of consumption that would feel pleasant by many people in the currently extant world. On the other hand, in the enduring system 6-8 Mrd people cannot keep on consuming unlimitedly or over too much.'

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