Muleskinner Clairvoyances, Part 2.2.1 ( 2009-2039)

”[...]For a brief moment at the turn of the millenium, there was no pressing crisis to deflect attention – the debt shocks had faded, the 'transitions' were complete, and a new global war had not yet arrived.[...] In retrospekt, it is striking that capitalisms monopoly period, when it no longer had to deal with competing ideas or counterpowers, was extremely brief – only eight years, from the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991 to the collapse of the WTO talks in 1999.” (Klein 2007, 279-280).

“[...] to develop scenarios for a period of 100 years is a relatively new field. Difficulties arise not only from large scientific uncertainties and data inadequacies, but also because people are not trained to think in such time-spans. We are educated in narrow disciplines, and our ability to model complex systems, at the global level, is still in its infancy. For example, within the next century technological discontinuities should be expected, and possibly major shifts in societal values and in the balance of geopolitical power. The study of past trends over such long periods is hampered because most databases are incomplete if more than 50 years old. [...]” (from IPCC-Site; under Special report on emissions Scenarios - chapter 1.3: Purposes and uses of SRES Emissions Scenarios)

Perhaps our aim to present these time-lines in single combined post was a bit too ambitious a challenge. Therefore, more distant (after 2040s ->) years will be postponed to separate later part (could be presented in some weeks, but it probably makes more sense to see how all of this seems after maybe few years and leave the later predictions for around that time. If necessary, those could then also include the likely corrections in these earlier ones. We'll consider the alternatives, and so the subsequent posts to follow will probably discuss different topics...). From these clairvoyances, we mention them basically just emphasizing the realism we like give some place here. Probably due our recent (late) arised environmental concern, these aspects have been raised in the main front. In another timing, say the few mentioned years later these would probably have played a slightly smaller role in our predictions. Many of the things could as well turn out more pleasantly; however, if we did predict so it would be same as telling somebody's fortunes – not lying, stricktly speaking, but presenting the altered truths. And that would make our foresees more unreliable by starting point. Also to mention, since any this kind of effort is often viewed (slightly, if not much) also to influencing the future it aims to foresee, we are taking the opposite view and saying that it's already been written (but not by us, and not realized, can therefore take any alternative direction as well).

The previous post (Introduction; 2.1) presented a brief summary from the current things and environmental discussions, like those about global warming, so we'll now (after these few sentences) enter the actual predictions here. As for the other things of importance, we can perhaps think the above quotes as some 'guidelines' but will equally also rely on some general knowledge from the recent past. Seems proven, that globalization as an cultural and economic direction will probably be more cautiously seen as in the late 1990s even it used to. Doesn't still necessary mean any mass rejection of basic capitalistic ideology/either radical change away from global consumerism. Whether the globalization will continue as cultural phenomenon is not questionable, whether the noticed side-effects and consequences (like those falling on environment) are as easily accepted and/or felt as unavoidable seems slightly less probable. Even so, apparently the endless flow of consumer products and markets now continue in growth and existence, side-by-side with all these known world-wide problems. Most of the latter concern the necessities, such as food, water economics, health and safety questions, and even more have emerged from environmental questions, etc.

The latter quote - also detached from it's original context here- is here only to remind ourselves and the reader from the fact that is it quite unprobable if any previously seen could give an 'exact' knowledge from what is to happen in periods over the 20/30 years. Past experience only serves to offer some examples from similar situations, which shouldn't be overlooked. Mostly the actual realities will differ from the predicted things, because human (mind) is accustomed in handling things limited to time-scales of maximum by 100 years. Any effort to create reliable scenarios for wider time-scales would in principle have to be based, and/or as prerequisitive take into account a far more complete changes of cultural-social structures and value-systems. Most briefly, that would also demand us to extend our thinking and actions for over our own individual life-times. Such practices do exist and in some places even remain influential, but in today's everyday life such is not even always possible. However, shouldn't prevent to see that current world is only a certain particular outcome, (mostly) entity and result from some couple hundred years developmental lines. The one after, say 50 years, will be more differentiated from those 'earliest' roots. Whether it will be better or worse; we don't know and perhaps thats not even the most appropriate question to ask from (our) point of view. What matters more is whether there would be, now and in the future, more long-term solutions, possibilities (and so on) to be seen.

The Timeline:

-2009-

Various sites equipped with geo-locational services, entertainment, other interactive applications and social networkings keep flourishing in the net. Cloud computing markets continue grow as well, more slowly but probably stabilized rate along as well as the mobile markets/smart-phones (and net-books). Current economic 'lowdown' is expected to continue at least couple more years, however some economists predict the earlier levels of consumption reached again relatively fast once the 'crisis' may be over. GHS-emissions still on the raise and the ice keeps melting. But if we are to believe some recent trends, there could some signs of the change for the better, only it seems the speed of this is as much slow as is the rapid rate of cultural changes (expected).

-2010-

The South-African World Football Cup comes and goes along with limited demonstrations that succeed to raise some international attention. An African country achieves place in the semi-finals, finally gaining bronze medal for the continent as well. /

In the digital entertainment markets copyright becomes further more obsolete because still increasingly lot people are found taking part and receiving their share of films, music, etc + various other medias of interest from social participation web-sites as well as similar channels (of various kinds), etc. In spite of that, one could expect the traditional markets still selling in profitable amounts and remaining for some time a regular part in supermarkets and shopping centers offerings, at least another decade. After that – possibly media kiosks and similar will finally replace fx the disks and some other now 'archaic' devices/mediums. Additionally, whether or not the control/limiting the activities of the 'netizens' is to take place, the more recent emergence of popularity of Darknets and F2F (i.e. Friend-to-Friend) with their successors and similar distribution services make the sharing-culture to remain and keep its permanent foothold in the 'new economics' of digital consumerism.

-2011-

Examples from cheap paper-flat panels and various thin screens for 'electronic advertising' make appearance in the markets. One of the quickly developing inventions will be fx so called E-paper¹ that can in time gain a market shares from the (E-)books because it possesses the same usabilities (fx permits loading differing content, that can be obtained from wireless networks) but reminds the traditional newspapers in form. The savings in energy efficiency by reducing paper/printing needs are only nominal (at first), but doesn't probably limit the success of product. /

The 'new environmentalism' and its spread among the regular citizen (and in politics) is likely to be one of the fastest phenomenon/movement in rise during the next decade. Though, the popularity may vary in different regions. Also, there's to be seen some generational divide lines, but in less apparent (than before). Other raising new (or reappearing old) movements are more difficult to foresee, but seems supposable that these will be related to both continuing increase of differentiation of life-styles and perhaps a bit more rooted (than recently) in traditional values. Globally, the overall trend of world-wide consumerism has for some time been shaping the cultures towards more consistency and resemblance, so there may as counter-effect finally emerge more specialiced cultural changes, perhaps.

-2012-

A continuation for Kyoto agreement and emissions regulations for more radical cuts will be reached. However the real benefits are not to show/seen but after some decades and by tthe time there's also more new energy demands found having emerged. Most rises from growing needs of the developing economies and their production/industries, but globally there's noticeable increase fx in number of vehicles, building of more networks (and -centers,), markets and users of new high tech products, and basically continuously growth in increase of house-hold devices in the world(etc), and all add some to the cake. In general more devices and purposes, being more energy-effective or not, create new amounts in energy needs.

-2013-

New production/other health safety regulations (in addition to the previously mentioned GHS-regulations) are adjusted in laws; these concern (ao) the toxins, some are limiting new chemicals used in production incl. the Nanoparticles², and some may concern the Bio-engineered² things, as well as some other areas. To mention a few areas. /

In the cars manufacturing, the directions are for bit smaller and compact and more fuel economic. In during the next decade self-driving taxis will have become available in many cities. These are probably mainly PEVs(Pure electric vehicle). Generally the amount of renewable/hybrid cars from the total is closer to 10/15 than 30 per cent (that level will be reached in ...say around 2035 - In western, developed countries, far less numerous in the developing world, with some exceptions depending from fx countries in question and their economical backgrounds as well as the direction of the world markets).

-2014-

In many places (of the world) the use of biofuels increases, mostlly in public transportation (like buses) and in some cases small vehicles like mopeds, etc. Ethanol and other sugar-based biofuel products like corn/E85 may have gained a slight market slice (about 5 to 10 per cent globally, say). The 2^nd generation (Biofuels) are taken in limited uses in spite of the expectable debates on the claimed sustainability of these, because most apparent source-material would be taken from 'cellulosic sugar' and forests. Also methods to effectively produce energy from various bio-sources are created continuosly; these include bio waste, biogas, waste wood and other 'products' originating from natural sources – one fx could be biogas when effectively integrated in the recyclement systems from human consumed waste. Apparently none of the previous can't solve the (fuel-)demand by themselves and use will vary in different regiong according to circumstances. Which also means oil will still remain largely used energy in many ways (like fx heating, some by-products, etc). But also some completely new solutions may be invented and beneficial, if developed in pollution free direction. The arrival of the 3^rd generation (Biofuels), most supposable to be the algae-based 'fossil fuel'-substitutes, seems difficult to predict, so lets just give that a timing around 2020. If any of the above will be taken in uses comparable and as remarkably substituting the fossil fuels isn't yet very probable, but there's a lot prospective visions, anyway (as well the known widely discussed negative consequences noticed so far). How soon the whole of it is going to develop, remains also still a bit uncertain; as the focus of development seems to be merely concentrating on crops/plants that aren't grown for human food, the harmful side-consequences seen at food markets are expected to lessen, but the current technologies will still remain most used in the near future. Also in the closest period, the methods preferred are still found in mixing these with conventional gasoline and similar uses in products like jet fuel, kerosene, diesels.

-2015-

Internet as the main distribution medium for the more traditional content starts to gain more favour among the common users in addition to 'youngsters' (0-30 of age). It is supposed (by us) to take as much as another 15 years until that process is completed in whole and even after that many traditional (tv-)channels are expected to remain, but in general the TV as such, is to be further integrated within the 'broad bands' of the future (doesn't mean the disappearance of televisions though and there's also in this lot variety in between nations/continents, because of the different background, fx. Also is expected that further media related changes are taking place. Broad bands are probably increasingly gaining the main tasks of transmitting various other home (media-)uses; video-calls, gaming, movie-streams/etc and even other Internet-based uses. Also, as HD-video continues its spread, usable techniques for distribution and codecs in available more widely, and increasing amount of people will renew their media-devices whenever new improvements are brought to markets. This doesn't exclude the 'traditional' TV-broadcasting to remain around at least 2030s but the viewers are also expected to be equipped with a number of other external devices and machineries (perhaps some are fx. Picture techniques like 3D-viewing, perhaps bit-torrent like distribution systems, more fast and flexible wireless transmissions for content between devices and viewers, etc). Lots of this and that, but lots in that lots will be short-lived garbage as well, to summarize this up.

-2016-

Nanotechs (with other technical progress) will bring more effective solar-powered devices in hand-held market. Some such solutions are available already in recently presented products. The improvements in cells permitting directly solar-charging phones and/or mobiles equipped with external powering panels, probably with more efficient chargers and batteries life-time permit them to keep up active for more hours and even fx efficient Internet use (if the weather prevents continuous charging, there's regular electricity to use). However, we don't suppose the devices in reasonable prices available on markets even in 5 more years later because the big players are more busy keeping the customer satisfied with new apps and media-rich/energy hungry devices. As result, when finally brought more numerously for mass-markets, these quickly reach place as trendy 'greenish' product, and also success in reducing the climatic burden by some amount. Basically when develop, it could be ideal powering method for the cellphones at least where there's enough sunshine available. /

At around same time happens also yet another revolution in the handhelds – though the emergence of devices takes probably more benefit from the new faster wireless networks and greater flexibility available in OS(Operation Systems). Slowly at first, but some time during following 5 to 10 years the new (smart) phones will evolve common as laptops as typical consumers main entrance to wide array of complex services in the net and also get integrated to metering/ordering functions of some other electronic home-devices (refrigerators, other electricity devices, monitoring ventilation systems, etc). It is also possible that typical consumerist dividing takes place and there may competing solutions available for home-electronics but only with combination of certain makers phones/electronics vendors product. But, remains still a luxuries of the richer for some time.

-2017-

An unestimated amount of (thousands of) Mrd's is (again) needed for backing some of the (multinational) collateral companies, banks and several other corporations (which in particular, that we of course cannot predict). Mainly because this time could see a period of the next global economic dive/downfall to take place. As side-consequences it also slows some meaningful projects and investments, but if preceding time has seen a period of some 'responsible economics' and 'sustainable growth' in the (global) stock markets , most influensively, the actual overall scenario predicted appears probably more limited. And also, this will slow down consumption for consumings sake, important aspect to notice, if not completely sufficient to balance some of the troublesome consequences. /

Vaccination and eradication campaigns by World Health Organization(WHO) may have almost erased Polio and Measles from the world. But not completely, so there is likely occasional cases from (both) from time to time still after some decades even - the 'eradication' of both has been among WHO's campaigns target for longer time without complete success (after success in complete eradication of Smallpox, which was abolished at 1977). Several other diseases remain directly or indirectly causing a number of child deaths in decades to follow even if fx new advancements in genetic research and medicines could offer new help. Main reasons, probably, the lack of sufficient public health care in many areas, insufficient (international) funding and co-ordination, continuing wars, poverty, some related things resulting fx from globalization, etc.

Also fx influenza vaccines and various other medicines are probably improving, but remain likely more regional in uses. Several common diseases in the warmer regions (Malaria, Dengue, possibly Yellow fewer) are expected to gain grounds in the more northern latitudes when climate becomes warmer (though this has been recently questioned in some arguments). Anyway, we predict the former. Also, some new forms/mutations of diseases may appear, possibly related to warming.

Advances of biotechnology may have brought - because of possibility to produce fx vaccines and other medicines more locally - availability of cheaper medicines within the reach of more people in the developing world. On the other hand, improved methods and reduced costs doesn't necessary mean that the actual prices of medicines would always become cheaper; fx when the synthetic 'human'-insulin was created, and could have been produced and brought to markets with relatively low cost, mainly cost savings were taking place in profits of manufacturers. [And for the consumers in the European market it was still(2003) considerably more expensive than the pork insulin, allthough IDF(International Diabetes Federation) mentions no reason to prefer one form of insulin over another in currently produced medicines though human insulines have the "...theoretical advantage that it can be synthetized in limitless quantities at relatively low cost.", also is then mentioned that genetic engineering should be able to guarantee the supply of safe and affordable insulin; since "...its production capacity is theoretically limitless." - See fx Wikipedia article on Biotechnology (and/or) it's reference from the IDF Statement on the insulins manufactured.]

-2018-

Leapfrogging across the digital divide. Probably, the developing countries (in addition to those having larger land/population/mineral resources) that would be most successful in leapfrogging for the '21st century dreamboat' will be some of the smaller/mid size countries. Can result from various factors; fx taking the ICT(Information and Communication Technology) benefits in use with current technologies; transition for more urbanized societies with simultaneusly efficient improvements in the social sector, or perhaps improvements in the food production (fx reduced dependency on imports), possibly successfully taking use alternative energy sources could reduce problems that in the long run arise from dependency on oil; perhaps as well producing more specialized products that precede some generating demand and/or fx forming partnerships with related small and other nations. In some countries, where there's solar available and used, this may perhaps show a such trend taking place in adjacent areas. In general it is more supposable to expect occasional success stories (some more continuous, some perhaps on less firm ground). Also, basic needs like schooling and health care, sanitation systems, as well as democratic government are probable prerequisitives. As well, investments by international community can play a role with perhaps support on new technology areas, for smaller companies fx. But it is also noted mostly this hasn't earlier been found happening where there hasn't preceded in existence the developed infrastructure, like roads, ports, telecom, energy, etc (Wikjman-Afifi 2002, p. 141). Anyway the overall transition will happen slower, most change being from rural economics towards the urbanized way of life, probably.

-2019-

Within markets for alternatives for gasoline in cars fuels, PEVs may have reached slightly more numerous in numbers, mainly in the Northern hemisphere of the world. However, the actual breakthrough will probably partially depend from the development of oil prices (according to some estimates the next oil price rallye is predicted around 2013-15³, but it could pass to later years as well. This seems supposable because of recently reached 'all-time hikes'. The timing for expected emergence of renewable fueled consumer cars in market is difficult to estimate with certainty. So The EVs probably will gain some market as well as the hybrids becoming more common(especially in cities, and used in urban areas where travel distances would be short - the increase would take place mostly probably in much urbanized countries, like Britain that currently was developing EVs favoring plans as part of its renewable programs). More globally these possibly start to common no sooner than after the 2020s. And, gasoline fueled vehicles will still govern market of the most economies until about 2030-40s, on developing countries likely some decades even after that. Also, Hydrogen fueled cars are often expected to gain markets around 2040-50s.

--/--

Various global problems are expected to mark the turn of the decade; shortages of food in parts of the world, possible shortages from fuels, and most worries have been in scenarios predicted to arise from problems in water adequacy in agricultural uses. At some areas production and harvests are expected to still increase, and this probably also affects the resulting development of food markets. And the climatic problem (raise of temperatures) and its effects for the food production generates also other questions. More heat resistant crops are probably already in development and also more effective improvements in farming methods and better productivity (fertilizers use/organic production both probably have their benefits and disadvantages) may have some effect. The actual difficulties/most suitable solutions also vary between different geographic zones, most probably. In some places this also was already seen leading in changes of cultivated plants and the markets targeted(fx coffee plantations abandoning that market for fx bio-oils production), likely development.

Along with the overall population increase, there is a strong possibility of increase in threats of malnutrition, water scarcity and (ao) desertification/land degradation problems (most directly concerning the Africa, where also a mass increase in number of refugees is expected, see fx; "Looming desertification could spawn millions of environmental refugees" - and if any past history can give some advice, the unforeseen numbers in refugees seems more than probable). Also, political decisions made in time about the global food politics would be needed in any of the possible scenarios to be seen. At the same time, also urbanization and other developments related will continue in the continent (and elsewhere).

-2020-

During following period (say 2020-2030) a major nuclear power plant accident is possible to happen because many of the older plants have at the time become such aged and continued use increases risks. The possibility is more likely in the countries where such high-tech power is recently taken in use; the extended use of plants continued over time of the original life-span; the usage includes military intentioned production; and/or if the (international) maintenance and control for some reason inadequate. The older from the IIIrd generation reactors kept use are more vulnerable to the risk (if not replaced in time with newer ones having the internal reactor turn-off systems in case problems happen/take place). The possible accident could be in scale to any of the known previous nuclear facility accidents that have been generally publicized⁴. Of course, there's equal possibility of any other as disastrous(if not comparable in the long-term environmental results) industrial accident to happen.

-2021-

Space-tourism reaches a new record of 500 participants in year. Much of this due to reason that it is been internationally banned the following year, because of caused unnecessary stress for now more vulnerable atmosphere. The ozone layer is saved from yet another burden with the decision, but in spite of that lobbers for the celebrity holiday travels defend their business by the benefits for 'scientific use' (like climate observations, etc). Thanks to decision further space-holidays are prohibited, until around some decades later less harmful rocket-fuels are taken in use and a new generation of 'space-trippers' head for their taste from orbit and the magnicifient views. Others will still have to satisfy for Google-Earths space exploration extension. /

Another stress for atmosphere, the data centers are expected (by varying estimates, some say around 2030s) to reach the same level in GHS-emissions as the airline industry in total. Increase in use of networks, and more numbers in servers are most apparent reasons, amounts of E-waste increases from fx the necessary upgrades needed periodically for the equipment periodically another consequence. Improved energy efficiency is targeted by various companies and helps (as well as gives points in publics eyes), but there's also multitudes of more careless use and users. In the case of airline industry, part of the trend is explained by limits on its growth being reached before and also less polluting kerosenes in use. In total, there is amounts of new traffic both in highways, airways and the cyberspace.

-2022-

Development in consumer electronics and small-scaled technologies now push to markets many 'advanced external aids' (like in the hearing aids + medical devices, sports carriages, wider uses of electronic/DNA-fingerprinting in consumer market products). The process is making progress in during times and obviously this also includes fx. Miniaturized communication devices, some more improvements and spread in wireless video-transmission networks and devices and the multitude of other improving stuff for measurement, data-storage, photo copying/delivering, etc, etc. Some new stuff may see an even larger markets in overall (like mobile phones from early 1990s to more recent days), but all this is likely to happen in shorter periods of time and would be more related to developments of some other adjacent areas. /

At the time (as result from some former experiments of bioengineering^{(see note 2)} animals - some of the better known examples developed fx for wiping out boll worms and other pests - may be found causing 'unexpected' effects in nature. For example, there may be in some areas ecological balance becoming changed as result of these new transgenetic⁵ animals and/or some other consequences not before seen and not have expected to result (could be just as simple as some species gaining in numbers due that some of their 'enemies' are reduced, which affects eco-system and other populations by more permanent manner). Shortly, in the most cases concerning these, if actually released in the wild, nobody can be quite sure from the resulting long-term effects (which is of course reason these to have been developed more quietly and not as widely in use as GMO-crops, which recently were planted and used in at least few dozen countries). But, in this timescale it is quite possible these as well may (have?) show the 'gene flow' between natural and modified ones, (for some reason) having taken place...

-2023-

Improvements in medicines resulting fx from genetic research and other fields are expectable. These are often advertised as creating possibilities to 'solve' fx problems from aging, curing cancers and various other things. If not always so, anyway for the many diseases some new treatment/cure may have been generated with lab genetics and other research. Also DNA data-banks in medidal uses may have become more widespread and are further collected, offering some specialized treatment for the customers that are within the benefits of their services. It is not quite certain if any of the above could in the close future found in benefit of better health care for the 'great masses' quite as effectively as fx. Penicillin did in the course of 20th century; partly because of the patents systems and regulations (and such) in the (genetic) medical fields, partly for the differences in availability and quality of public health care. Yet, Pharmacogenomics, intended to create designed and fitting drugs according to person genetic profile will also be more advanced, fx. It should be able to permit more strickt estimating of fx drug dosage needed and make possible to maximise its effect on concerning the disease in question. Also, safer vaccines are promised to be inexpensive, more stable, easy to store (fx) and will be more developed. Around this timing, these could be in use, more globally and more efficiently.

-2024-

Also waste/pollution increases in the seas simultaneously with continued overfishing and could possibly result to further collapses in the sea food production as well as more limited animal biodiversity. The aquaculture and farmed fisheries being developed more environmentally friendly sustainable directions seems most promising alternative if developed to possible directions balancing these effects. The actual scope of the seas degradation we can't predict but in general the Oceans are found to have become more acidic, more polluted, and also more unpredictable concerning the (global) warmings effects. There may be enlargement of the so called 'dead zones', especially in certain shallow seas one would suppose. Some predictions also give suppositions from losses in food-chains, the coastal regions becoming more constructed and built, previous causing weakened changes of the reproduction for some species. As well as some other similarly negative consequences predicted.

-2025-

First human expedition to make permanent base in Mars is being launched. Simultaneously last from other 'final frontiers', the abysses in the seas are also being examined further and wider than before seen. Unfortunately (but in some cases with utilities concerning the environment as well) this may lead in efforts to take the natural resources of these areas in increased use. Total scope of new techniques and development is more difficult to outline, but the positive results (possibly) include improvements in knowledge from these areas and uses of (energy-) sources like thermal energy in the seas, fx. As co-result several formerly unknown deep sea marine species are found and calculated, which is relieving since some from the better known ones are supposed/found having became extinct/diminished remarkably in their known range. Also, the melting may have resulted in some inland/mountain glaciers to have reduced in scale, which probably also (in some cases) leads to the increased use of certain natural sources in the areas.

-2026-

Adapt or die. Polar Bears die out in their natural living areas (in during decade). Most pack ice of the North Pole may appear disappeared (the more steep threats in global climate scenarios mentioned are disturbances for planets albedo, and possible 'domino-effect', however we won't predict for the reason there isn't so far any sufficient information available/been created from the actual scope of the problem.) As for the bears survival, individuals in zoo's are well maintained, but species eventual fate remains problematic. Luckily, and surprisingly, surviving population remnants are found newly inhabiting some of the adjacent northern archipelagos but also having started mixing with some of the regular bears populations. The situation is hoped to be helped with conservation and re-introducing individuals in the wild from the zoo's existing stocks. Remains a problematic ethical-ecologic question for the following times.

-2027-

An overall emergence and formation of the 21^st 'values and habitats' takes place more slowly but surely. Differences in between geographical and cultural areas are still big, as well as the divide between the rich and the poor. (Some) overall statistic about 'average individual' could see trends like the following; a typical citizen spends about 1-2 hours from free time in networks (Internet or its successors, more in many countries because equally vast number of people don't still have the possibility), works about 6-14 hours a day(of course varies as well as does in-between the professions and countries), watches TV/other such medias about the same as today, exercises a bit less (previously said per day estimates) and is generally a slightly healthier (but generally eats less healthy/inadequately); has about 2.59 kids(varies even more), reads generally less but the time spend in communication space' and networks/similar compensates this by some amount, is slightly less religious, divorces and re-marrying (at least with some 'official' agreement, if not always by religious ceremony) 10-20 per cent more common (average marrying age probably raised for several years), the general life expectancy perhaps 5-10 years longer.

-2028-

Ever more solutions for tackling the Climate Change are considered, despite that fossil emissions reduction has seen considerably advanced. Problem of the climatic ballast still remains heavy and there may also be new environmental questions emerged/found. New inventions could include more efficient solar panels developed with nanotechs, either placed on Earths ground or at space-orbit, techniques to filter the excess CO2 from air, and arrival of new/improved energy sources. Also the Geo-engineering⁶ may now have again emerged with some support and additional proposed solutions by some decision-makers and scientist. Some more conventional projects, having been in preparation for longer time may be taken in effective and safe use, but its hard to say how effective those could be. In general, no 'quick fix' for the problem is to be found and around, but such efforts are occasionally proposed and there's various businesses in this area to be seen and also completely new methods to reduce CO2 from atmosphere may have been invented (As well as the increasingly larger amount of energy should be able to produce with alternative, less pollutive methods).

-2029-

The richest man in the world(no chances to be a woman, even considering that now among 50 richest there probably is some...) reaches remarkable sum of 100 Bn worth of cash, stocks, investments and other ownings. However, there is some dispute from him being the richest of all times as well, since the estimated average medium income levels from earliest times aren't known with certainty, and also statistics from bkt's in-between the past times and present can't be compared with any reliability.

--/--

The environmentally most stressed decade this far. Warming has advanced, though hopefully with slightly lowering pace. Further ecologic destruction possible. Oceans are found to be far worse state than before, but most problems may be apparent/found in form of oxygen loss in certain sea-areas and depthtitudes. Droughts, soil degradation and water supply for farming needs probably are found causing losses for the agricultural production, more or less globally. If emissions reductions are being successful (in the developed countries so far mostly, but now increasingly elsewhere too...) and the food production not affected too badly, the (world) population increase growth perhaps won't turn out quite as alarming question as it other ways will. The decade also sees some political turmoil, but we don't predict that any more specifically.

-2030-

About 5.3 billion people (from the total of around 7-8 Bn)⁷ will be living in the cities and problems about traffic, consumption, smog, housing, noise, waste disposal, are at levels not before seen. Probably due the transportation needs more of the aerial space is taken in use with fx hovercraft buses (or similar). The solutions for tackling urban waste and reduction of pollutive gases from fx transportation economics may differ lot between individual cities and places, probably. Also ecologic/aesthetic town-planning can have positive consequences, where taken in use on the planning stage as well as the improved recycling practices. Other as well important matters may concern fx food safety and water supply issues. Food markets globally and probably also ready-made foods markets specifically probably keep increasing. Also this has consequences on farming/cultivation practices, because often larger amounts of the grains, flours, and other provisions will have to be brought from more distant rural areas (and/or imported). Global market probably grows both more enlarged, but maybe less concentrated on certain products (like coffee, sugar, etc). According to FAOs short-term estimates, both production and consumption are growing faster in the developing countries than in OECD countries in all products (except wheat). The export growth in developing countries is also greater, but also greater increased vulnerability and uncertainty from food supplies are expected, and especially the domestic supply capacity therefore in overall structure where agriculture operates becomes more important (Agricultural Outlook 2007-2018. OECD FAO, 2007a). In the long-term similar trend seems at the least supposable, as well as the climate effects concerning food trade and food safety.

-2031-

Just another species, one from the threatened big cats still left, dies out in the wild fx because disappearance of the prey, habitat destruction and some other reasons related to climatic changes. Subsequent years it is noticed that also populations in worlds zoo's are threateningly low and could soon face similar fate. Efforts to bring this noteworthy species back from the rink of extinction are started, with more traditional methods, but with cloning as well, where cats are being reproduced with the aid of introduced DNA from some relative species. As result, the population is recovered and visitors of the zoo's have something new and exciting to watch again. Unfortunately, due only limited research and knowledge earlier done on that species particular genetic structure, and in spite of the several comparable experiments been succesfully carried out earlier, the cloned ones appear to have limited life-span, suffer from birth-defects and the breeding success remains low. Another row of experiments to produce improved cells and recombinant mitochondria with the co-species gene pools offerings is carried, but now there's unwillingness to allow use of the few surviving real specimen's DNA (and their genetic stock also appears weakened). Eventually, after various debates against and pro, the new 'corrected' clones are finally ready, and all this leads in effort to re-introduce them in the wild (the original ones remaining in isolated groups in some zoo's). However, the process appears difficult. Partly this is because the few suitable forests/ other areas available are quite populated with other surviving cats left (and similar predators), so the population of clones are slow to catch on in the wild and likely to lose in competition from available prey and habitat area. Further efforts on the project continues until latter part of century, say 2050s.

-2032-

TV channels and broadcasting are basically completely fused to new efficient networks (in many parts of the world). As parallel development the TV sees partial disappearance as the other forms of entertainment in cyber-matrixes are found become more popular (especially among the younger). In many places, especially in the cities the Internet also is partially replaced with more local mesh-nets that hold the same data/contents available. There may be simultaneously several of these (in use of the participant). They are local extensions in the global net with various maintainers (like cities, companies, fx) and special purposes, and basically serve as some kinds of 'localized vestibules' for the global net. These offer more direct/faster wireless connections to much of the data available also in more distant servers, in similar manner as much of that is transmissioned/operates in Internet nowadays. Typical platforms include fx virtualized chats and other such cyberlife-forms/living rooms, but also more traditional applications like some based on Google Earth's later formations will be in use. Textual nets as the current Internet in its form is supposed to still exist, but their use may be little less popular because of the newer more popular technologies. Typical more advanced UI(User Interfaces) probably resembles something like the ones seen in scifi-movie Minority Report (2002), because early versions from such things were on the market some years back.

-2033-

Solar energy production has increased for an amount of 50 to 100 times the currently generated , but fulfills still only 4-10 per cent from global energy needs. Wind 6-12 per cent. Hydro to 6-10 per cent. Geothermal 4-8 per cent. But all these vary probably a lot in between geographical zones and (our) estimates are just guessing. Fossil emissions have reduced the same/slightly greater amount, natural gas use increased similarly. Since development of renewables and the other alternative methods (largest the nuclear energy production) only corresponds slightly more than expected increase in the most optimistic scenario, the energy efficiency and reduction in overall pollution of fossil energies as well reduction of the CO2 released in transportation economy will have become even more important. And the actual realization of renewables use depends probably most from the official programs at the developed nations and also (partly) the possible funding for their starting in the developing world. Existing capacities already used of course vary in between countries. Most supposable still, because the total global primary energy demand expands by 45 per cent until 2030, average growth being 1.6 per cent a year (WEO - Fact Sheet, 2008), that production with any singular method can't be increased that exponentially to make the expected demand, not to mention reduction needed in fossil energies.

-2034-

This year/time could – if the worst expectations come true and things turn out bad - show the actual 'tipping point'. How relevant the possibility and the actual scope it would take is not quite easily estimated, since actually there's not any previous example from climatic changes happening in similar scale and rate (by human caused factors - nobody actually knows what the most probable scenario would be). The 'positive feedback'-effect as result of all the melting, etc. isn't the only threat, though most alarming it may be. Several (possible) more limited scenarios show some worrisome prospective points as well ; these could mean (but not necessary and neither would be limited to) destruction/changes in the Arctic and Antarctic animal species reproduction/survival ; the further disappearance of rain forests, as well as their various species - forest fires, a major threat, are expected to increase anyway; the degradation and disappearance of corals(fx Great Barrier Reef); drying of the many important wet-lands and loss in their biodiversity, fx. Many of the above permanent losses in eco-systems, that we won't expect to see, but can't exclude the possibility (in this scenario).

-2035-

The world religions remain as widely practiced as today; Christianity being most common in numbers with most believers. Islam remain the 2^nd and Hinduism in 4^th place (third numerous group contains various forms of non-religiousness; atheists/agnosticism and other secularism)⁸. In total, we don't expect any big chances in these during the first decades of the century. As an curious example, a new kind of 'creed'; 'transhuman scientific believership' could be expected to gain grounds among some of the political and monetary decision makers; this appears mainly as non-religiousness, atheism, but also loans some philosophic base from various (quasi-scientific) doctrines, biotechnologics and also from mystic cults. This 'creed' gains generally small number of supporters, but yet becomes a certain kind of curiosity example among the 'cultural/politic elite'. More problematic (for the participants) appears its noisy extreme-wing that brings front arguments reminding those expressed in the 19/20^th century social darwinism and the eugenics. These, as some other new (religious) sects come and go (during decades), but in general the trend is expected to be towards more secularization (though, sometimes may be seen also new religious awakenings with new religious movements forming even).

-2036-

The bunch of synthetic life-forms and artificially born 'micro-organisms' have been produced in labs and cultivation pools for some time now, but we suppose their larger emergence in real uses not until around this time. From the tasks expected, the most advertised at the moment is the potential for energy production. The visions/results from the field of the advanced synthetic biology, would/will also include possibilities to 'program' the created organisms for turning plants to fuels in certain cultivation/farming pools. Also creating cleaner energies is another field that seems give grounds for lot promises (one advertised use would be to develop the modified organisms capturing released carbon dioxides from released gases at power plants and making these converting the pollutants to natural gas). Similarly effective use planned is the techniques of producing hydrogen directly from from the sunlight, with the aid of 'genetic programming' the organisms for the use in photosynthesis (or something like that...). As previous are just some mentions in the informative briefing at Scientific American 9/2006, there's probably other directions/fields of research these technologies will have developed until the timing here. Also these can be of use in lab-research for test purposes etc, like perhaps concerning medicinery. And its easy also to think about some more imaginary possible uses for the 'technology' in everyday products; fx synthetic botoxin programmed behaving more flexibly in uses of plastic surgery, sweepers for wiping which use variables of synthetic bacteria to decompose dirt to molecules, synthetic (small) artificial organisms sold in the pet trade, etc... However, the actual time of appearance seems difficult to estimate, not the least because synthetic biology also creates several controversial questions that may concern human health and ethics as well; these are fx questions of biosecurity, -safety, etc. And also due that reason, the possible actual use and resulting 'products' would probably be kept under strict supervision for quite some time(like some similar adjacent fields nowadays).

-2037-

One of the few “great” art works of the 21^st century is created. This is based on expectation that cultural complexity further increases and people globally are supposedly finding less common and universally shared values in such creations/experiences. In general this is also partly resulting from (current) state where the art has become integrated (more than before)in part of the consumeristic and middle-class culture. Its qualities and specialities are expected in some levels to be more fused in various human everyday practices and fx increasing number of people participate in forms of 'artistic' production at social nets/cyberspace/work. On the other hand, more people probably are taking part in creation of arts that would have become more typical in the times, like environmentalistic art and such that use recycled materials and public space in part of the actual (art)object /process of creation. Anything of the previous, also, doesn't exclude/predict the disappearance of the 'art world' where fx objects valued worth millions (of Euros) are still being sold and as well we expect that multitudes of non-conformist art flourish around the world. More of the latter will be co-operatively created and some of it takes form in part of the 'resistance' against the late (forms of) capitalism. So, the areas of art are going to have become more common part in the everyday-life, but more inconspicious and at the same time the universality of these experiences is going to continue the change towards more fragmented form.

-2038-

In various Islands at worlds Oceans, the raising levels of sea and erosion as result are expected eat away areas from the coastal lines and lower grounds. Some islands, in the parts of Pacific fx where exist various separate Islands or groups of them, are expected to have sunk under the sea rise (could concern some other places as well). Current estimates give these incidents a timing somewhat around until half of the century. In some islands generally at higher grounds, are also expected to have lost some 5 to 20 per cent of agricultural land, possibly some decades further. Also, in the mid and high latitude islands is expected alien species invasions (and causing also reductions in for authentic animals populations).

-2039-

Some of the earliest creations of the real, actual A.I. are being seen. Due the complexity and controversity of this in general, we don't necessary predict any mass-market for plastic/metallic androids but merely these 'creations' being found in real uses are certain supercomputers in their actual developing places - the tech and research labs. But in the following times, also various more mobile creations would perhaps be taken in use at certain advanced tasks, most often in places inaccessible/hostile for physiological organisms. However... in the period at more distant decade a (space)-vessel equipped with representative of such form of 'non-human' intelligence is sent for research/survey duty in Saturn . All goes well, until arraving closer to the planet the transmissions suddenly is found cut out (reasons unknown ...but later examination gives as possible explanation the vessel having got out of control resulted from unexpected effects caused by Saturns various moons and gotten too close to its gravitation field, then having disappeared in gas atmosphere, probably finally crash-landing to planets firm inner.) The ship or its cargo are never found and neither heard from ever again... [Also human sent satellites close to planet haven't been able witnessing/broadcasting pictures from incident, due that at the same time, coincidentally, current successor for Internet, the A.P.R.A.net (also nick-named 'Super-A.I.') has been temporarily shut-down because of malfunction at the time of incident. Because most everything of the information transmitted/received is handled by that network - and most everything on Earth fx is watched and recorded by that as well - no better explanation for the incidents is publicly announced ...however, soon after the incident a new space-mission, this time with a crew is launched towards Saturn.]

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The (Sources) and Endnotes:

* The sources refered and (some) of the other material is presented in bibliography of the previous part. If not, these may be refered with hyper-links in this text. *

1. E-paper, developed by fx Epson is a thin electronic paper sheet that can be curled up. So it has more qualities similar to those of the traditional paper than the E-books. Solutions in the range of regular customers (in prices) are probable to arrive in consumer markets within some years (but won't make this any real cheap alternative to traditional papers for some time, still).

2. The Nanoparticles are planned and created for various purposes and technologies; fx they are mentioned already used in some textiles developed and sold for human use. And have also for some time been developed for improving efficiency of solar cells; as well as other advancements and various uses of the technology probably are in use, though there isn't a uniform certainty from some the possible side-effects.

For the term Bioengineering Answers.com (13.4.2009) dictionary gives (us) two definitions; “1. The application of engineering principles to the fields of biology and medicine, as in the development of aids or replacements for defective or missing body organs. Also called biomedical engineering. 2. Genetic engineering.” (but we suppose, in common language it is more generally now used as synonymous to the latter definition, especially after the latter has become less favorable term in general use). Sometimes bioengineering, at least earlier, possibly was also used in meaning planning and constructing a (small scale) projects in the wild nature/landscape, fx constructing structures to strenghten river banks.

3. From the oil prices and markets development we are basically guessing, because fx at the time of recent oil prices heights period similar arguments were often raised in discussion at the news. Mostly this is often related to speculations from the peak oil being reached sooner times / would happen in close years. This Guardian newsbrief preceding the latest oil price heights, mentions IEAs estimates supposing oil to peak in between 2013-2030. On the other hand World Energy Outlook doesn't expect that before 2030, though global demand is expected to remain on raise and the conventional oil production to increase only slightly from 2007 to 2030 (WEO - Fact Sheet, 2008). For the reason that this will probably have some effect on various other things predicted in these clairvoyances, we are simple supposing the recent price heights probably can repeat itself but no sooner than 2015, and this could go completely other ways as well (like most things in the world).

4. This can mean anything on scale of the better known major disasters in nuclear plants/facilities; Wikipedia links list from the most severe; Mayak (1957, 1968) , Windscale (1957) / Three Mile Island(1979) , Chernobyl (1986) , Tokaimura(1999) ; Also fx Chalk River (1952) and Saint-Laurent (1969 and 1980) and Lucensi (1969) represent some of the accidental problems/reactor faults that have happened.

5. Answers.com search of definition (13.4.2009) for transgenesis gives as result: “The transfer of cloned genetic material from one species or breed to another.” Transgenesis is executed in between organisms that are unrelated and therefore could not occur naturally, cisgenesis means the same in between related organisms (could occur naturally). Genetically modified plants and foods (GMO) are the best known examples, but also other research in such genetics has been the commonplace field for some time now, like in the projects aiming to create transgenetic insects as substitutes for pesticides; fx this link to a little older post (from 2001) combines a few (news-)briefings from the earliest debates and controversies (i.e. 'Frankenbugs on the Wings' ; 'Environmental preview of the precedent-setting genetically engineered insect release found inadequate'; 'Bioengineered bugs Stir Dreams of Scientists: Will they Fly?') and also contains list ('A swarm of biobugs on the horizon') from such experiments that were then under research for possible use at the time.

But, today there seems to be quite a lot more experiments on the transgenetic animals been carried out, fx examples of salmons engineered to grow a lot faster than their natural cousins, aquarium fishes modified with fluorescent genes from jellyfish to glow in the dark, and for the food production fx 'hilariously' named Enviropig (genetically modified pigs that don't produce as much phosphorus in their manure and therefore doesn't cause as much pollution for the waters), as well as other variations of genetical experiments on domestic animals. Also, in addition to this 'ordinary transgenesis', fx according to this article there already are plantations/exists modified trees in the wild (there is also mentioned possibilities to produce trees engineered with "...ability to put bacteria or even a fish gene into a tree" ...don't know if a more specified term for this sort of transgenesis is been invented). Anyway projects of planting the modified 'Supertrees' were still few years ago carried out in larger scale only in China (But could already be a more regular practise in elsewhere as well because the commercial markets also had already been on planning stage for some time, and the article also cites argument sayin that regulations for were needed, for; "...talking about potentially millions of acres of genetically engineered trees." And all this was taking place, even though the article also mentions several possible long-term results that were possible to be happening in the nature, mostly from pollination, modified trees contaminating the natural ones). Today it may have been seen taken a few steps further, though for us (in MSW) the search only gave the situation from few years ago; but if thinking one can learn from the past days, there's a few more words about bioengineering forests in this related article... And of course plenty more projects exist on similar esperiments and fields of genetics, like the transgenetic domestic animals (like cattle) made to grow and produce meat faster fx, though we're not bothering to list them here more precisely.

6. Geo-engineerings possibilities have perhaps become more popular recently, sometimes seen as an accompanying strategy in reducing greenhouse emission cuts. Effective large-scale techniques are in general estimated to be costly fx. regarding the technical preparations needed, and also, these could/have the potential to cause (significant) environmental damage as well if found unsuccessfull/misused. But, some limited projects have already been carried out and there is possibility of more to be seen of this field; various current techniques proposed and their critique can be read from the Wiki-article from geo-engineering, fx.

7. UN (United Nations) recent estimates calculate world population to reach about 9.2 to 9.5 Bn in 2050. Worlds urban dwellers are expected to increase from 3.4 to 6.4 Bn, practically doubling during that period (and about the size of the total population currently). Most of that development, as well as the population growth would be happening in Africa (and Asia, where half of the population, current trend continuing, would be living in urban areas until 2025). Also, the development is expected to differ by some amount in between individual countries; in some regions cities make the most of the urban population increase(also by absorbing the adjacent areas), elsewhere the process is expected take place merely in the development of rural areas towards smaller towns and suburbs, etc. (UN Press Conference on World Urbanization Prospects [2008 report]; see: http://www.un.org/News/briefings/docs/2008/080226_Zlotnik.doc.htm). Our estimate on urbanization development in 2030 is roughly based on these expectations, but we also held the supposition that main part of the development would (until the 2030s at least) still mostly would be seen in larger cities (in their growth/cities absorbing the near areas in that development. A number of world 'Mega-cities' is in the UN Report expected to increase for 27, until 2025). Though, some views also give estimates from population growh having slowed down a bit more rapidly in recent times, which could impact the previous expectations, if reliably noticed being a continuous trend.

8. Ranking according the order presented in Wikipedia (the world religions) (13.9.2009) .

The Muleskinner Clairvoyant, pt 2.1; Introduction

(by Whacko-Gecko)

”Oh no, This is the road to hell...” (Chris Rea: The Road to Hell)

”I'm very optimistic, pessimism requires too much energy.”(A common saying)

PREWORD

Finally in this last part, we are enlargening the scope of our clairvoyances from 10 to 50 years, as promised. So, we don´t here make any limited suppositions, but try to present foresees from the likely trends defining the future and forthcoming events, like the current pressures that fall on environment, global population development, Climate Change, energy policies, as well as the more specialized fields like new inventions to be expected, etc. Probably this final part will rely more on scifistic suppositions than previous ones, which were merely focused on Internet and computers/ICT sector development. These are not excluded on last part either, but the focus will be elsewhere. In our futuristics, we hope to reach some visionary views, like some best inspiring foresees from the past. From these many have been created from the fictional basis. Think Jules Verne and Orwell as successful such authors. Or E.R.Burroughs and Philip K. Dick as some inspirational examples.

Also, this final chapter will be presented mainly as a time line. Most things will be predicted under appropriate years, a manner similar to sometimes seen traditional clairvoyances. This creates some problems, as most things happen and become meaningful during longer time periods and aren't therefore strictly tied to exact year, fx. We try to avoid the most striking simplicities resulting from this by alleging, that these present supposable timings making specific years of course just overall estimates. Where possible, the supposed wider timing(-scale) is also presented. Obviously, like any consent-minded can understand, we don't expect all of these (if most) even to take place as such, but these could still present some likely trends in the following decades.

In the beginning we mentioned a few areas and inventions that have formulated peoples lives in past 50 years, some significantly. As for the typical consumer society cultural objects, cars and television, don't actually show any signs of disappearance. On the energies part, today it wouldn't be possible to think modern life without electricity in use, which was as commonly used as ever (in the developed world if not everywhere). However, concerning the energy-sector the main current focus was around the time of writing being shifted to (soon) needed development of renewables, increasingly noteworthy question, resulting from the expected effects of Global warming. That and natures degradation are topics that will be felt at the times we suppose to predict, from 2010s onwards to around 2050s (Climate Change will likely affect further, until the end of century, and most theories are presented to reach that far, but our foresights are limited just until 2050s).

When beginning our futuristic approach the supposed rate and effects from the Climate Change were not very well generally known, and most information was received from the recent findings in IPPC Fourth Assessment Report (2007). In general, the public knowledge from the topic had started to form just recently; say, 2005-07, a lot as result from Al Gores widely presented (both cinema's and elsewhere) film The Inconvenient Truth. Perhaps noticeable, soon after films publication and reaching wider audiences, a lot of discussion was about if the film was reliable to facts(was the climate effect proven happening or not) and whether this was correctly presented¹. Since that, further scientific data has been generated, and now from relatively recent report by WWF (Tin[ed], 2008) we find assumptions from that fx melting of arctic ice sheets is noticed actually happening faster than predicted in IPPC-report. That is supposed to cause major effects on climate and ecosystems sooner than earlier expected. According to report the Arctic Sea is possible to become ice free, in fact it is presumed that summer ice may completely disappear in between 2013-2040 (the case that hasn't been so in 1 million years, they say...). Because of that, even larger reduction of GHS-emissions would be needed to keep the situation at the limits estimated, since increases over 2C warming in during century are predicted anyway(Tin[ed], 2008, p. 3-4) And its been found, the fossil fuels kept in use with similar manner as today, warming might raise for even more alarming levels(greenhouse effect among its best known direct consequences).

Since the further speculation on Climate Change is still open for numerous uncertainties, we won't go any deeper on such things as environmental threats, sea level rises, the increased number of droughts in certain areas and/or other threats expected(the reader may also possibly be more aware from these beforehand). Not to be omitted though, most important negative consequence from GHS-emissions and global warming would concern the Oceans, mainly them becoming increasingly acidic as carbon dioxide is absorbed in water (forming carbonic acid). Yet recorded average reduction of pH by 0.1 per cent on worlds Oceans is expected to continue causing changes on seas, most falling on shell-forming organisms, though exact knowledge and research was still recently to develop(Parry-Canziani-Palutikof, 2008, p. 2-3). In spite of the early stage of analyses, until the latter part of the century the seawater Ph is expected to reduce from level 8.1 to 7.7. Such drop, would lead to increased acidification and is supposed to result fx in the reduced reproducibility of many species. Later this may also affect ecologically and commercially important species(such as lobsters, crabs, mussels and fish), and in the long run consequences could be even more harmful. (Jacquot, 2008) Most direct impact is mentioned to fall on fx shellfish and eccinoderms, but especially that concerns any species with long generation time (like corals); ”2070, its likely that the optimal growth conditions for warm-water coral will simply no longer exist, and about 60 percent of the environment for cold-water coral will be gone.”(Timmer 2008) Another briefing then also points out this actually happening faster than predicted in previous simulations (Gitlin 2008). We can't here make more detailed descriptions, but the area is a field of increasing studies; 'BBC's Coral-labs' mention Googleing on the subject having given some 17 hits at 2004, now the same search returns thousands (Harrabin, 2009). The page also contains presentations from the subject - perhaps also more recent knowledge about it.

Thinking about the current energy economics, the magnitude of ongoing discussion also gives some hint that there's need for 'remodelling'. Various ways to fight back the Climatic Change are being presented. Energy efficiency fx can play major role, but even if some miracles would happen in consumer and regular house-hold level its quite improbable to make a radical reduction for total amount of emissions needed to cut out. Not to mention, most remarkable amount of energy use and what makes the most from expected increase in future also, is going to come from uses of industry, factories, etc. World Energy Outlook (WEO) by International Energy Agency(IEA) assumes the world primary energy demand to expand by 45 percent between 2006 and 2030, about 1.6 percent a year. Major part of the new energy production occurs in non-OECD countries, China and India making most of new production (around half of the incremental demand in 2030). The total share of consumed energy in world cities and towns grows from two thirds to almost three quarters in 2030 (also, power generation and transport sectors will contribute over 70 percent from the projected increase of emissions to 2030). As the major part of the existing power plants will still be in use at the time, WEO states that even if all new power plants were carbon-free, CO2-emissions would still be only 25 percent lower. Emissions are expected to peak in Europe and Japan around 2020 and then decline. Globally emissions are expected to rise even after that, which makes the WEO conclude that OECD countries themselves couldn't halt the increase of emissions released in atmosphere and much more rapid development in renewables – like hydropower, biomass, wind, etc – would be needed (World Energy Outlook [Fact Sheet], 2008c).

Major part of GHS-releases consisting from coal and oil usage, solutions to reduce emissions resulting in their burning has been proposed. However, these have not always been found necessary much cleaner practices than the earlier technologies used. For example, a study from the alternatives to use if oil, the main transportation fuel, was to be replaced, presents estimates that doing so mainly with coal-based liquid substitutes would place the critical 2C degree warming of climate(as compared to pre-industrial level) around 2042, three years sooner than conventional consumption with oil in use. Using renewables as main strategy, results to a prediction from significantly slower warming, reaching same levels not until 2056. There's not general certainty from whatever the amounts of coal left for burn by societies, but the number is in any case too much, and even regular use suffices to put the climatic problem over the edge, unless the emissions are captured/stored. (Amos, 2008) According to Greenpeace [E]nergy Revolution (2007) 2o per cent of coal reserves will be consumed until 2030, 40 per cent until 2050, but these could still last at least another 100 years (2007b, p. 50). Supposed warming of 2C globally is therefore in many views seen possible to happen in such (close) future as around 2030-2050.

On the development of main transportation vehicles in future there's several alternatives for gasoline proposed currently. These could be replaced with Electric(EV) and/or Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles(HFCV) (or similar). The latter is less probable to materialize in wider consumer use soon, but electric cars have been in development far longer, though without gaining much markets. Judging on the basis of what seems most probable, one could suppose that the major part of the substitutes for fossil fuelled vehicles, would, at least in the close future (10-20 years) be hybrid vehicles powered with plug-in electricity batters (PHEV). Currently most presented solutions include hybrids of EV's and gasoline fuelled cars, but there's also alternative solutions, and the speculations based on the expected development of HFCVs. Yet, it seems that especially building a suitable refuelling network for the latter would take far longer even. Also, the development of the Hydrogen (fuelled) vehicles is also more dependable on the efficiency in development of renewables in general. In the long run such could still become cheaper than keeping an oil-fuelled transportation economy, which by rough estimate costs in 30 years at least as much. Anyway, it is expected that due to current economic change in developing countries like China, India fx, capacity of vehicles world-wide could be tripled until 2050 (now about 750 million).(Ogden 2006, p. 94, 100) It is expected that majority of cars are still running by fossil fuel for as long as at least the following 30 years. Unlucky number perhaps...

Also possible is, that some forms of cleaner substitutes for gasoline/alternative sources could be invented and used in cars and vehicles. But since such isn't yet anywhere widely advertised or even proposed, seems logical to assume that methods to generate emissions-free electricity will become as important as the reduction of fossil fuel pollution. If one is to suppose that any remarkable numbers of EV's are in traffic anytime soon, such would require that the most from the older fossil fuelled cars would fall out of use in the same time, sooner the better. Some presented models, like Googles energy plan make ambitious goals, like that major part of the energy production would be carried out by renewables and until 2030s Plug-in EVs market share from new vehicles sold could increase from virtually nothing to some 16.5 million (Clean Energy 2030). Seems we can't of course predict such fast changes (which isn't even possible in elsewhere, that is; in most parts of the world). Also, even if all the vehicles using gasoline were replaced to alternatives, it wouldn't perhaps lessen that much the actual emissions, because an amount derived for gasoline production consist only about half (50 percent) from the total of products refined from a barrel of crude oil (Bryze 2008). However, could still make an important change for the better and such transition will likely have to take place in future, sooner or later.

Probably newest from currently used and largely built energies in recent times (say since 1950s), is the nuclear energy, favoured by many countries in their electricity production, though with varying amount. It feels quite probable to suppose that a lot more new nuclear will be taken in use around the world until 2030s. In spite of that it is not reasonable to expect these to solely substitute fossil fuels, since building nuclear plants is time-taking and demands costly economic efforts, as well as does the safe maintenance of plants, not to mention the noticeable risks involved (also most striking problem rises from the waste management, though some newer form of reactors, so called fusion-fission hybrids are expected to be used in reprocessing the most dangerous, high-radioactive transuranic waste)(”Nuclear Fusion-fission...”, 2009). The latter are, however, yet in developmental state and efficient usage is not expected until 10 to 20 years. Also, the general opinion towards nuclear energy isn't likely to change for positive. Another question is the problem from lasting of uranium reserves to be used². In addition, the older plants can't remain in use too far, so new production units built in larger numbers or not, it seems clear that in time before 2030 (and afterwards) a number of other suitable alternative energy forms would be needed. Basically, invention of nuclear fusion could solve all these problems, but such is rather more uncertain still.

It can also be noted, that on basis of cleanliness of (some of the) mostly advertised 'new clean renewable energies' like carbon-capturing from coal-burning, ethanol-based (cellulose as well as corn being the main source-fuel) biofuels and also nuclear energy were found, in a comparative study cited below, at least 25 (worst even 1000 times) more polluting than the cleaner renewable methods (from which the energy generated from wind was found cleanest)("Wind, Water, and Sun...", 2008d)³. So, we could now place some concern on the renewables, and their supposable (predicted) increased usage and further development because the dependency on oil will necessary have to reduce(its lasting also becomes crucial question in during 50 years). From past histories, we learn that usually the development of renewables hasn't ever been as fast than often expected/hoped.

Our main information from possibilities in the use of renewables comes from Greenpeace [E]nergy Revolution scenarios(2007, 2009), a plan suggesting that in 2050s half and in 2090s all the energy could come from renewables. This is of course also ambitious plan, and important to notice, it also places concern on getting completely rid from coal, which has been noticed as most drastic single factor pushing global warming further. Even Greenpeace's scenario doesn't supposes that coal could be removed from use in any near future, but presents the reasonable conclusion from all conventional coal-fired energy plants to be phased out by 2050s. It also suggests that the new ones built in developing world currently should be replaced with alternative renewable production like photovoltaics, on- and offshore wind and concentrated solar power plants:

”It is important to highlight that in the [E]nergy revolution Scenario the majority of remaining coal power plants – which will be replaced 20 years before their technical lifetime – are in China and India. This means that in practice all coal power plants built between 2005 and 2020 will be replaced by renewable energy sources. To support the building of capacity in developing countries significant new public financing, especially from industrialized countries, will be needed.” ([E]nergy Revolution, 2008a, p. 12-13).

Though more globally concerned than some other 'energy models', Greenpeace's [E]nergy revolution plan is naturally too complicated to be presented in detail(actually most futuristic scenarios are, and we're just referring to those here). Nevertheless, it is also quite clear that the efficiency in cutting emissions still depends a lot from the role of the richer countries in the world. Another futuristic (energy) scenario (say, Socolow-Pacala model from 2004) also notions the same thing. As well, it states an equally logical assumption (not withstanding the previous remarks on coal) that the developing world probably won't afford to let off from trying to keep their economic growth on track until half the century, so forth the OECD countries should be able to cut out emissions by greater numbers until that. Also, in the long term, the more fast reduction in amounts of fossil fuels burned appears as necessary and unavoidable, because now released amounts are likely to remain affecting for the climatic development far longer than current momentum. Socolow-Pacala-model then states that still after the 2050s 'both runners' (the current and following generations) are interlaced in a 'race' which has yet just started, and remarks that:

”Intergenerational equity requires that two runners have roughly equally difficult tasks. It seems to us that the tasks we have given the second runner (to cut the emissions rate in half between 2056 and 2106) will not be harder than the task of the first runner (to keep the global emissions in 2056 at present levels) – provided that between now and 2056 the world invests in research and development to get ready. A vigorous effort can prepare the revolutionary technologies that will give the second half of the century a running start. Those options could include scrubbing CO2 directly from the air, carbon storage in minerals, nuclear fusion, nuclear thermal hydrogen, and artificial photosynthesis.”(Socolow-Pacala, 2006, p. 57)

However, it remains of course less certain whether and how carefully these targets are kept in sight in the times of increasing economic competition, and fx therefore it may be also argued that any slip from these objections easily misses the overall targets. On the basis of previously said, it seems also quite logical that so called Plan B would be needed (meaning completely new non-polluting sources of energy production and ways for cutting the CO2 from atmosphere) in the period future, because even if succeeding to keep emissions on the level of 'Kyoto Protocol', the race will still remain but half won and the baton will just pass to next generation (Gibbs, 2006, p.103-105). (Not to mention, the easiest slip which leads to failure from targets, is a more predictable scenario than any other, that is; business as usual.)

Probably some of those prospective futuristic inventions and technologies available could be expected to arrive and taken for use in time-scales of our futuristics here. These (as presented in S.A. 9/2006) could include nuclear fusion, space-based solar, solar cells improved with nanotechnologies, more efficient uses of wave and tide, 'designer microbes' (a synthetic life-forms producing energy)... However, since further examination (and speculation on their possible uses) here would require yet more length, we'll leave those just for mention and hopefully some of them can be found effective times on-coming. In the latter part of century, almost universally accepted is the view that environment will have become much more warmer. Some apparent threats predicted fall then fx on the agricultural farming and other similar activities crucial for human health, fx. But, in spite of the cautious reservations we've given, one can still conclude that at least there's possible paths to take (the renewables in use), if political will and decisions are made in time. However, the world population growth is one major factor that easily raises more uncertainties...

A main area of development in the next decades (partly related to previously said), will concern the urbanization of cities, mainly in the developing world. This will have impacts on the environment too. We can fx think the new urbanization going on in China as some sort of model. This process can appear in many different paths, one possible example according eco-housing models (as presented on the article cited). Whatever the solutions or the rate of this trend, millions of people will be moving to cities during the period 2020-2030. (Adams, 2008) This is not temporary developmental trend but will continue even if times of economic downturn slow the process. According to Sassen, the growth in cities and even in the different areas inside them can remain as forceful even in periods when the economy would not overally grow by similar speed (Sassen 2006). The trend is taking place in countries around the developing world and increases (ao) stress on food production:

”Virtually all global population growth between 2007 and 2050 will occur in the cities of the developing world. Indeed the net increase in urban population during that period will exceed the net growth in overall population, as cities will also absorb migrants from rural areas. The world's urban population will nearly double during this period, rising from 3.3 billion to 6.4 billion people. By 2019, a majority of the developing world's populace will live in cities and towns (UN Population Division, 2008). These trends have implications for food demand and nutrition.”(Cohen et al. 2008, p. 25)⁴

In general cities are also creating more waste and pollution than rural settlements. As for the other consequences, urbanization probably drives towards more centralized and complex food economies because shift is going to be away from self-supporting house-hold economy. In general, one could also suppose that more land for crops and fields will be needed.

Forests cuts are a major effect increasing Climate Change, though clearing hectares for fields is not even main such reason. Clearing for uses of forest industries and cattle's grazing area probably causing more of that. Anyway, it is estimated, that about 515 million hectares of land (from which main part will be from tropical forests), be needed in uses for agriculture until 2030, just to fulfill the demands of human food production (until 2050s it is predicted even more increased demand of cultivated land)(McDermott, 2008). The areas where land usage needs are mostly expected to increase are mainly the same as where most of the world population growth in the future will occur, most apparently Africa. At the same time, land degradation will probably increase, most currently concerning the areas of equatorial Africa (18 per cent of lost global NPP⁵), Far East countries (Indo-China, Myanmar, Malaysia, Indonesia) counting 14 per cent, and Southern China (5 per cent), etc (Bai, et al. 2008, p. 23-24). If one is to suppose that situation would remain likewise and knowing that large parts of the worlds remaining rainforests exist on areas mentioned, any usage additional to the basic needs like food production easily worsens the climatic development, especially if (industrial) loggings are not sustainably watched (practices vary in between countries, but hopefully the change is being for the better...)

Animal species loss is one of the better known proven facts resulting from increased cutting of forests (by human activity). Especially this concerns the tropical rainforests, where the diversity of existing species is also most numerous. There's many known co-threats as well as the forest cuttings; some severe (mentioned in WWF's Living Planet Report) for the biodiversity are: habitat loss, overexploitation, invasible alien species, Climate Change. The plain statistical numbers in the report state that since 1970, in about 35 years there has been -28 decrease globally in observed 1648 species populations, this consisting from: -33 per cent decrease in terrestrial populations listed (887 diff. species, most change having happened in tropics because of forest loggings); -14 per cent loss in marine species (in 341 different counted, fx overfishing among the main causes); and -35 per cent decrease in freshwater species populations (in 458 species counted, main reason being 50 per cent decrease in wetland areas during the 20^th century). (Living Planet 2008, p. 6-12) So, most recently forests clearances was found as most significant direct cause, noticeable also because the greatest decline in period observed had happened at the so called neotropical area, where also loggings have been the largest.⁶

Concerning the continuing deforestation of recent years in tropical area, report also gives some other numbers related to issue: Just during 5 years (after the turn of millenium) the disappearance of forest from an area of 3.5 M ha in Brazil and 1.5 M ha in Indonesia was noted, each year. This was noticed as the main cause for disappearance of some 60 per cent in animal populations. (Living Planet 2008, p. 9) Knowing that during this century co-effects of Climate Change are expected to further increase the extinction rates among animal species - conservative estimate gives a prediction of 100 times faster rate than earlier in events of similar kind(Whitty, 2007) - makes this even more alarming thing. No matter how urgent one sees the climatic threats in future, the wild animal species and populations are among its most direct victims, since their habitat is already stressed by several other human caused factors. These include, in addition to previously mentioned also fx drainage of marshes and wet-lands, degradation of soil (and other forms of stress resulting fx from agricultural causes), hunting and collecting of wild animals, pesticides, pollution. Besides, the latter mentioned is not limited to the industrial pollution but includes as well such common every-day habits as human throw-away waste:

”The careless disposal of everyday domestic refuse leads to gradual accumulation in the environment. The main problem is that plastics and much other modern litter do not rot away as does natural waste. Plastic shopping bags and other plastic packaging, bottles and tape kill about 100,000 whales, seals, sea otters and turtles every year and up to 2 million birds. [...]” (Beer-Morris et al. 2005, p. 28)

(Of course, accidents oil tanker wreckages have the ability to singularly cause in scale comparable annihilations in animal populations.) So forth, even with conservation efforts and practices maintained in wider areas globally, if the above presented trends are likely to continue all this will create increasingly problems. An often presented estimation is about 25 per cent extinction rates in animal and plant species until just mid-century, mostly due to reasons related for climate change. Doesn't necessary would have to be so and also many species are capable to moving away if their living area becomes non-suitable (not all, though) so the warming also means changes in the range of many species habitat area. Much of the resulting consequences still depend on people's will to change their behaviour and uses of the now more vulnerable ecosystems. Also, likely is, surveillance of animal species will vary in between species, some may see an increase in numbers while of some diminish, fx because of their better adaptability. How and which kind the effects on the whole ecosystems (and the side-consequences) are not known for sure.

Also, on current manner of global resources use, a possible consequence could even be the collapse of ecosystem(s), a possibility sometimes raised forth. Most don´t dare to predict the crucial tipping point (various disastrous scenarios have been presented, some mentioned also in the text above), but we do; it's placed in our time line by exact year supposed. However, it would be erraneous to think this as a recent trend, without considering such practices having their backgrounds in past histories and developments. (The degradation of nature) has by no means been happening in limited period, it actually just seems more apparent these days when (so far limited) side-effects have become more visible, fx affecting the human food production chain. Of course, that's again a more complicated question that we have time neither intention to discuss here.

Anyway, this brief view (at past histories) show that if similar trend continues the forest ecosystems and animals have been/are likely to face the double-axed threat; that of loggings (described above) and Climate Change. Even though, some relatively recent news (here) give us some idea that the latter mentioned wouldn't probably turn Amazon to dry-lands and muds in very rapid future, it is not the only rainforest area affected by process of large changes and loggings (see fx here). (If not halted), the deforestation development is expected to worsen things further, and the previous newsbrief fx mentions it to currently add some 25 per cent increases in GHS-problem as well. Depends on how the issue is globally dealt with, more that will be harvested for short-sighted use and not with sustainable maintenance, more disastrous consequences are easy to predict. Similarly, the more economic global equality increases, the more direct overexploitation of resources one can as well predict. The Living Planet-report (2008) also raises attention to other important aspects (in concerns of this text, fx the statistics from global biocapacity usage in between different countries) but for now we'll have to go on to some final remarks here...

FORE!WORDS...

Sum total, we've now presented brief introduction to our clairvoyances. This was originally supposed to include a few sentences, but now it seems to have enlarged for more detailed discussion. So we're cutting it short now and leave the rest of our futuristics (2010-2050s) to the subsequent post.

In conclusion, most of this is comprised from brief excerpts to things currently happening and aims to outline the scope of the warming problem. There's far more (common and less common) inventions and topics researched currently/expected/foresighted and we've but mentioned some related energy-sources (say, fx high-altitude wind, wind in general, geothermal, solar - a few more words on that below - and in spite of the much discussed negative co-effects, fast emerging biofuels). Also more scifistic solutions to current climate problem have been proposed; fx giant towers absorbing the CO2 straight from atmosphere and/or genetically modified mass-scale trees to carry out the same job. As we've learned from all this, seems that the world is going to be struggling with these questions for some time.

From the supposable singular inventions and factors that basically could happen in close future, we can of course make expectations from the invention of (nuclear) fusion or A.I.(Artificial Intelligence) - Opposite to Roszaks early cautious comments presented in the first part of our futuristics, relatively many researches seem to suppose that some sort of real 'human-like' A.I., could be created (sometime during this century say). Continuing from the possible energy-sources of the future, similarly 'scifistic' sounding, but anyway another new field of research seems to be fx artificial photosynthesis, described in principle to offer possibilities for generating enough energy from couple litres of water to fulfi single house-holds daily needs(Gitlin, 2009). Also remembering that Sun is the single inexhaustible energy-source available for use on Earth(for practically unlimited period of time), one gets the impression this could hold some promise. However, it feels also quite uncertain if any practical solutions would be available but in the more distant days.

Nevertheless and whatever the most probable from the renewable energies to be taken in wider uses first, it also can be mentioned that in spite of its slow development solar is expected to become one of the main energy sources in the 21^st century. Optimistic as we are, we feel that the one great invention of our times could as well be taking the solar potential from Sahara to effective use. Basically, wide areas of deserts are in some plans supposed to be turning sunlight for energies with concentrated panels, collected energy then distributed with efficient super grid network. This possibly could, we also think, balance the global economic inequality. Not the less significant could then fx also be the further development of Photovoltaics (from which it is mentioned in the Greenpeace scenario: ”Its importance derives from its great flexibility and its enormous technical potential for rural electrification for the 2 billion people currently having no access to electricity.”)([E]nergy Revolution 2007b, p.31) Although, similar to most (new) renewable energy-sources, the development of the more effective uses of solar and PVs will still take time. Nevertheless, also often supposed is that around the end of century most energy (about 90 per cent) could be produced with renewables.

Our following futuristics are not offering a too strickly serious presights but not too lighthearted taken views either and from this perspective it's quite reasonable to predict much not considered (in them) to happen and probably will. We've not fx given any expectations from the forthcoming political and human societal/economical changes, which will likely have their impact on many things predicted. That could mean positive development as well as negative. Not to mention, in addition to all the possible inventions expected there's as well a list of global problems but referred in this brief article: fx malnourishment, illiteracy, (expected) water scarcity, inadequate waste management/recycling practices, overexploitation of resources. Also, the number of refugees and people forced to move from their current home-grounds is often expected to increase in future.

But, none of the previous is anything very much anew, only that the consequences and co-effects of these probably would be felt more globally in the future. What seems then also logical to expect, the climatic development will (in the future) have effect also on the people in OECD-countries (though, the largest extent is expected to fall on those being born at the moment =the next generation). Considering that it also makes sense to say that whatever the amount of increase in energy needs, the most effective plan would be to slow the economic growth and unnecessary excess production. Also to say, of course, as usual we're possibly here not having the most recent knowledge to present, so (much from the) discussed above is probably little bit from behind the current state of things.

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Endnotes:

1. Afterwards it feels rather ironic to observe the first turns the discussion took and how the film was first claimed in many comments as exaggerations, etc. Interesting to notice also is fx how Gore is mentioned repeatedly having been misquoted (in tv, newspaps, etc) and also how the whole of it was a lot questioned in the beginnings ([R.J.], ”Myths and falsehoods...”, 2007), (possibly) the public media presenting similar kind of reactions than had always been the habit when such warnings by climatic scientists had been presented in previous decades. This seems to have been – of course – also a direct following from responses by the official side and the early reception may have had emphasizes of similar kind also elsewhere – if not always quite as denying. Like in the words of that song quoted at the beginning of our clairvoyances here, then (luckily) more recently 'the common sense was ringing out bells' and now the problem of warming at least is generally acknownledged and discussed.

2. In addition to concerns on lastability of uranium, its mining is often mentioned causing various environmental damage and therefore also usually raises opposition. Compared to fossil fuels worlds uranium reserves are limited, though estimates differ: Greenpeace (2007) Energy Outlook mentions that ”...in the light of various scenarios for the worldwide development of nuclear power, it is likely that the uranium supplies will be exhausted sometime between 2026 and 2070 […]realistic estimates indicate that supplies will be enough for only few countries by 2050.”([E]nergy Revolution 2007b, p. 51) IAEAs(International Atomic Energy Agency) estimates are known to be more optimistic, though varying. A 2006 briefing based on annually published 'Red Book' information gives an estimate that worlds uranium resources would be enough for 85 years demand and expects the technological improvements in reactors efficiency to lenghten this for far longer times in future; in addition IAEA supposes larger unused uranium reserves to exist; "[...]world uranium resources in total are considered to be much higher. Based on geological evidence and knowledge of uranium in phosphates the study considers more than 35 million tonnes is available for exploitation." ("Global Uranium Resources to meet...", 2006) Also, some estimates mention the techniques for extracting uranium from sea-water as possible source. In a bit older base-study for future nuclear energy usage in US it is stated that (concerning the US plants, apparently?): ”...the world-wide supply of uranium ore is sufficient to fuel the deployment of 1000 reactors over the next half century and to maintain this level of deployment over 40 year lifetime of this fleet.”(The Future of Nuclear Power 2003, p. 4).

3. Also worth noticing, in that study it is mentioned that ethanol may also emit more pollutants than fossil fuels. Cleanest methods for electricity production (according to it) were, counting from the best:

I. Wind II. Concentrated solar power (CSP) III. Geothermal power IV. Tidal power […] ; As ecologically cleanest combinations to transportation vehicles on this basis were found (in similar order):

1. Wind-BEVs 2. Wind-HFCVs 3. CSP-BEVs 4. Geothermal-BEVs 5. Tidal-BEVs 6. Solar PV-BEVs 7. Wave-BEVs 8. Hydroelectric-BEVs 9. A tie between nuclear-BEVs and Coal-CCS-BEVs 10. Coal-CCS-BEVs (tied with nuclear-BEVs) 11. Corn-E85 12. Cellulosic-E85.

Study also finds that HFCVs may be more useful in trips longer than 250 miles, BEVs in less than 250 miles travel distances. ('Wind, Water and Sun...', 2008d) [BEV=Battery Electric Vehicle ; HFCV=Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle ; PV=Photovoltaic ; CCS=Carbon Capture and Sequestering ; E85=a combination from gasoline and ethanol (85/15 per cent)]

4. The IFPRI-report also states (ao plenty of other things) that people in towns and cities have generally fewer opportunities than rural people to produce their own food and must rely more on purchases and cash economy to eat. Any sharp increase on food prices can have large impacts on especially the poor. The report mentions the raising reliance from so called street foods in cities, and places concern on safety and food hygiene that are becoming aspects of increasing importance as well. Also is mentioned the productivity decline in cereals production in many countries agriculture in 1990s. Another aspect that then raises aforth is that the buying power in food markets has become concentrated and global markets dominated by supermarket groups and corporations, especially in Latin America, Southeast Asia, China. In global food markets the governing trend has been concentration and consolidation which characterize the system; about ”[...]the 10 leading food retailers enjoy a 24 percent share of the $3.5 billion global market and grocery stores have expanded their operations in developing countries at a rapid pace.” (Cohen et al., 2006, p. 25-26) As consequence (partly) from the world food markets recent development, in many countries, has resulted to mass demonstrations seen (protests against the food price raises). Not surprising, because at the same time the large profits are made in the food market, which as downright result affects most directly the poorest. However in general food prices are expected still to remain in higher level, because recent new demands on the market (fx recent emerging of the biofuels-sector) ,as FAO's Agricultural Outlook summarizes. It also mentions (though published at the time of most peaking in global food prices) that the prices were expected to remain so, though further strict peak wasn't expected in the during current period(Agricultural Outlook 2007-2018. OECD-FAO, 2007a).

Also noteworthy, if only in subordinate sentence, is another thing related to world food market; the overfishing of the seas, which has been supposed at some point result to the collapse of the worlds fisheries and nevertheless still largely had long time remained the same – a Status quo. As pointed out often, modern technics can take the advantage out of the oceans to a level where fx successful reproduction of fishes has become limited. Also, according to Safina between 1970 and 1990 the worlds industrial fishing fleet grew far more than oceans could be expected to sustain, doubling in total the number of used vessels and tonnage. In spite of that, global catch didn't much raise. He even remarks that the annual profits from fx yellowtail flounder fishery could have remarkably increased by removing more than 100 boats.(Safina 1998, p.61) As for the following decades, one could suppose that the worlds population growing will create more pressures on the seas and fisheries.

5. The factor (NPP), can be defined as ”a long-term loss of eco-system function and productivity caused by disturbances that the land cannot recover unaided. It may be measured by change in net primary productivity (NPP – the rate at which vegetation fixes CO2 from the atmosphere less losses through respiration); deviation from the norm may be taken as an indicator of land degradation or improvement.” Also, it is said: ”Land degradation means a loss of NPP, but a decrease in NPP is not necessarily land degradation.” (Bai, et al. 2008, p. 1, 23) This (the latter sentence) means mostly temporary decline in productivity which can be result from other factors. On the basis for the estimating happening land degradation various other factors are used in report (whatever their exact meanings) fx Rain-use efficiency and Energy use efficiency, combined with normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), the data collected by satellite metering. Also is mentioned the base data used being gathered from 1983-2003.

6. Especially Amazonas rainforests has seen fastest decline in species populations (-76 per cent loss, in the area consisting the total of 40 per cent of species on planet). On some other geographical zones the statistics appear as follows; Also Aftropical (-14) and the Indo-Pacific (-35) index show loss in populations. At Nearctic area no overall change was noticed and in the Palearctic there was actually an increase (+30) in populations noticed (but, mainly due to conservation successes in habitat protection and prevention of pollution, also greatest decline in this hemisphere is noticed to having already happened during some past 300 years, when fx 50 per cent of the land was cleared for the uses of agriculture and leaving no room for any increases of land usage.)

Single species examples is no use to present here, but it can be noticed that global birds index in report shows decrease of -20 per cent in populations of 895 species, in mammals -19 percent decrease was found in 395 species populations. To underline these views more, the report states, that noticing fx the existence of some 10000 birds species would perhaps give some hope these calculations being isolated examples, but: ”The decline of 20 per cent decline in the bird index masks a more serious decline of 50 per cent experienced by surveyed populations of tropical and marine birds.” And, from 5400 mammal species that have been described ”...20 per cent are classified as threatened by the IUCN Red list of endangered Species.” Also, in mammal index most serious declines counted was noticed on tropical realms. (Living Planet 2008, p. 6-12) To the contrary, there are also sometimes arguments on behalf that the so called secondary forests (growing fx on the earlier plantations in Middle/South-america where new fast growing forests have started to gain ground back) are expected to make new areas of wilderness where animal species can survive. In spite of that this may be happening, it is difficult to estimate if this will have a real comparable effects, because these areas are often remote from original forests and no unquestionable evidence from many wild species survival in them is clearly presented. Opinions from their significance seem to vary. Even less we are in knowledge if such could be helped fx with conservation efforts.