”[...]For a brief moment at the turn of the millenium, there was no pressing crisis to deflect attention – the debt shocks had faded, the 'transitions' were complete, and a new global war had not yet arrived.[...] In retrospekt, it is striking that capitalisms monopoly period, when it no longer had to deal with competing ideas or counterpowers, was extremely brief – only eight years, from the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991 to the collapse of the WTO talks in 1999.” (Klein 2007, 279-280).
“[...] to develop scenarios for a period of 100 years is a relatively new field. Difficulties arise not only from large scientific uncertainties and data inadequacies, but also because people are not trained to think in such time-spans. We are educated in narrow disciplines, and our ability to model complex systems, at the global level, is still in its infancy. For example, within the next century technological discontinuities should be expected, and possibly major shifts in societal values and in the balance of geopolitical power. The study of past trends over such long periods is hampered because most databases are incomplete if more than 50 years old. [...]” (from IPCC-Site; under Special report on emissions Scenarios - chapter 1.3: Purposes and uses of SRES Emissions Scenarios)Perhaps our aim to present these time-lines in single combined post was a bit too ambitious a challenge. Therefore, more distant (after 2040s ->) years will be postponed to separate later part (could be presented in some weeks, but it probably makes more sense to see how all of this seems after maybe few years and leave the later predictions for around that time. If necessary, those could then also include the likely corrections in these earlier ones. We'll consider the alternatives, and so the subsequent posts to follow will probably discuss different topics...). From these clairvoyances, we mention them basically just emphasizing the realism we like give some place here. Probably due our recent (late) arised environmental concern, these aspects have been raised in the main front. In another timing, say the few mentioned years later these would probably have played a slightly smaller role in our predictions. Many of the things could as well turn out more pleasantly; however, if we did predict so it would be same as telling somebody's fortunes – not lying, stricktly speaking, but presenting the altered truths. And that would make our foresees more unreliable by starting point. Also to mention, since any this kind of effort is often viewed (slightly, if not much) also to influencing the future it aims to foresee, we are taking the opposite view and saying that it's already been written (but not by us, and not realized, can therefore take any alternative direction as well).
The previous post (Introduction; 2.1) presented a brief summary from the current things and environmental discussions, like those about global warming, so we'll now (after these few sentences) enter the actual predictions here. As for the other things of importance, we can perhaps think the above quotes as some 'guidelines' but will equally also rely on some general knowledge from the recent past. Seems proven, that globalization as an cultural and economic direction will probably be more cautiously seen as in the late 1990s even it used to. Doesn't still necessary mean any mass rejection of basic capitalistic ideology/either radical change away from global consumerism. Whether the globalization will continue as cultural phenomenon is not questionable, whether the noticed side-effects and consequences (like those falling on environment) are as easily accepted and/or felt as unavoidable seems slightly less probable. Even so, apparently the endless flow of consumer products and markets now continue in growth and existence, side-by-side with all these known world-wide problems. Most of the latter concern the necessities, such as food, water economics, health and safety questions, and even more have emerged from environmental questions, etc.
The latter quote - also detached from it's original context here- is here only to remind ourselves and the reader from the fact that is it quite unprobable if any previously seen could give an 'exact' knowledge from what is to happen in periods over the 20/30 years. Past experience only serves to offer some examples from similar situations, which shouldn't be overlooked. Mostly the actual realities will differ from the predicted things, because human (mind) is accustomed in handling things limited to time-scales of maximum by 100 years. Any effort to create reliable scenarios for wider time-scales would in principle have to be based, and/or as prerequisitive take into account a far more complete changes of cultural-social structures and value-systems. Most briefly, that would also demand us to extend our thinking and actions for over our own individual life-times. Such practices do exist and in some places even remain influential, but in today's everyday life such is not even always possible. However, shouldn't prevent to see that current world is only a certain particular outcome, (mostly) entity and result from some couple hundred years developmental lines. The one after, say 50 years, will be more differentiated from those 'earliest' roots. Whether it will be better or worse; we don't know and perhaps thats not even the most appropriate question to ask from (our) point of view. What matters more is whether there would be, now and in the future, more long-term solutions, possibilities (and so on) to be seen.
The Timeline:
-2009-
Various sites equipped with geo-locational services, entertainment, other interactive applications and social networkings keep flourishing in the net. Cloud computing markets continue grow as well, more slowly but probably stabilized rate along as well as the mobile markets/smart-phones (and net-books). Current economic 'lowdown' is expected to continue at least couple more years, however some economists predict the earlier levels of consumption reached again relatively fast once the 'crisis' may be over. GHS-emissions still on the raise and the ice keeps melting. But if we are to believe some recent trends, there could some signs of the change for the better, only it seems the speed of this is as much slow as is the rapid rate of cultural changes (expected).
-2010-
The South-African World Football Cup comes and goes along with limited demonstrations that succeed to raise some international attention. An African country achieves place in the semi-finals, finally gaining bronze medal for the continent as well. /
In the digital entertainment markets copyright becomes further more obsolete because still increasingly lot people are found taking part and receiving their share of films, music, etc + various other medias of interest from social participation web-sites as well as similar channels (of various kinds), etc. In spite of that, one could expect the traditional markets still selling in profitable amounts and remaining for some time a regular part in supermarkets and shopping centers offerings, at least another decade. After that – possibly media kiosks and similar will finally replace fx the disks and some other now 'archaic' devices/mediums. Additionally, whether or not the control/limiting the activities of the 'netizens' is to take place, the more recent emergence of popularity of Darknets and F2F (i.e. Friend-to-Friend) with their successors and similar distribution services make the sharing-culture to remain and keep its permanent foothold in the 'new economics' of digital consumerism.
-2011-
Examples from cheap paper-flat panels and various thin screens for 'electronic advertising' make appearance in the markets. One of the quickly developing inventions will be fx so called E-paper1 that can in time gain a market shares from the (E-)books because it possesses the same usabilities (fx permits loading differing content, that can be obtained from wireless networks) but reminds the traditional newspapers in form. The savings in energy efficiency by reducing paper/printing needs are only nominal (at first), but doesn't probably limit the success of product. /
The 'new environmentalism' and its spread among the regular citizen (and in politics) is likely to be one of the fastest phenomenon/movement in rise during the next decade. Though, the popularity may vary in different regions. Also, there's to be seen some generational divide lines, but in less apparent (than before). Other raising new (or reappearing old) movements are more difficult to foresee, but seems supposable that these will be related to both continuing increase of differentiation of life-styles and perhaps a bit more rooted (than recently) in traditional values. Globally, the overall trend of world-wide consumerism has for some time been shaping the cultures towards more consistency and resemblance, so there may as counter-effect finally emerge more specialiced cultural changes, perhaps.
-2012-
A continuation for Kyoto agreement and emissions regulations for more radical cuts will be reached. However the real benefits are not to show/seen but after some decades and by tthe time there's also more new energy demands found having emerged. Most rises from growing needs of the developing economies and their production/industries, but globally there's noticeable increase fx in number of vehicles, building of more networks (and -centers,), markets and users of new high tech products, and basically continuously growth in increase of house-hold devices in the world(etc), and all add some to the cake. In general more devices and purposes, being more energy-effective or not, create new amounts in energy needs.
-2013-
In the cars manufacturing, the directions are for bit smaller and compact and more fuel economic. In during the next decade self-driving taxis will have become available in many cities. These are probably mainly PEVs(Pure electric vehicle). Generally the amount of renewable/hybrid cars from the total is closer to 10/15 than 30 per cent (that level will be reached in ...say around 2035 - In western, developed countries, far less numerous in the developing world, with some exceptions depending from fx countries in question and their economical backgrounds as well as the direction of the world markets).
-2014-
-2015-
-2016-
Nanotechs (with other technical progress) will bring more effective solar-powered devices in hand-held market. Some such solutions are available already in recently presented products. The improvements in cells permitting directly solar-charging phones and/or mobiles equipped with external powering panels, probably with more efficient chargers and batteries life-time permit them to keep up active for more hours and even fx efficient Internet use (if the weather prevents continuous charging, there's regular electricity to use). However, we don't suppose the devices in reasonable prices available on markets even in 5 more years later because the big players are more busy keeping the customer satisfied with new apps and media-rich/energy hungry devices. As result, when finally brought more numerously for mass-markets, these quickly reach place as trendy 'greenish' product, and also success in reducing the climatic burden by some amount. Basically when develop, it could be ideal powering method for the cellphones at least where there's enough sunshine available. /
At around same time happens also yet another revolution in the handhelds – though the emergence of devices takes probably more benefit from the new faster wireless networks and greater flexibility available in OS(Operation Systems). Slowly at first, but some time during following 5 to 10 years the new (smart) phones will evolve common as laptops as typical consumers main entrance to wide array of complex services in the net and also get integrated to metering/ordering functions of some other electronic home-devices (refrigerators, other electricity devices, monitoring ventilation systems, etc). It is also possible that typical consumerist dividing takes place and there may competing solutions available for home-electronics but only with combination of certain makers phones/electronics vendors product. But, remains still a luxuries of the richer for some time.
-2017-
An unestimated amount of (thousands of) Mrd's is (again) needed for backing some of the (multinational) collateral companies, banks and several other corporations (which in particular, that we of course cannot predict). Mainly because this time could see a period of the next global economic dive/downfall to take place. As side-consequences it also slows some meaningful projects and investments, but if preceding time has seen a period of some 'responsible economics' and 'sustainable growth' in the (global) stock markets , most influensively, the actual overall scenario predicted appears probably more limited. And also, this will slow down consumption for consumings sake, important aspect to notice, if not completely sufficient to balance some of the troublesome consequences. /
Vaccination and eradication campaigns by World Health Organization(WHO) may have almost erased Polio and Measles from the world. But not completely, so there is likely occasional cases from (both) from time to time still after some decades even - the 'eradication' of both has been among WHO's campaigns target for longer time without complete success (after success in complete eradication of Smallpox, which was abolished at 1977). Several other diseases remain directly or indirectly causing a number of child deaths in decades to follow even if fx new advancements in genetic research and medicines could offer new help. Main reasons, probably, the lack of sufficient public health care in many areas, insufficient (international) funding and co-ordination, continuing wars, poverty, some related things resulting fx from globalization, etc.
Also fx influenza vaccines and various other medicines are probably improving, but remain likely more regional in uses. Several common diseases in the warmer regions (Malaria, Dengue, possibly Yellow fewer) are expected to gain grounds in the more northern latitudes when climate becomes warmer (though this has been recently questioned in some arguments). Anyway, we predict the former. Also, some new forms/mutations of diseases may appear, possibly related to warming.
Advances of biotechnology may have brought - because of possibility to produce fx vaccines and other medicines more locally - availability of cheaper medicines within the reach of more people in the developing world. On the other hand, improved methods and reduced costs doesn't necessary mean that the actual prices of medicines would always become cheaper; fx when the synthetic 'human'-insulin was created, and could have been produced and brought to markets with relatively low cost, mainly cost savings were taking place in profits of manufacturers. [And for the consumers in the European market it was still(2003) considerably more expensive than the pork insulin, allthough IDF(International Diabetes Federation) mentions no reason to prefer one form of insulin over another in currently produced medicines though human insulines have the "...theoretical advantage that it can be synthetized in limitless quantities at relatively low cost.", also is then mentioned that genetic engineering should be able to guarantee the supply of safe and affordable insulin; since "...its production capacity is theoretically limitless." - See fx Wikipedia article on Biotechnology (and/or) it's reference from the IDF Statement on the insulins manufactured.]
-2018-
Leapfrogging across the digital divide. Probably, the developing countries (in addition to those having larger land/population/mineral resources) that would be most successful in leapfrogging for the '21st century dreamboat' will be some of the smaller/mid size countries. Can result from various factors; fx taking the ICT(Information and Communication Technology) benefits in use with current technologies; transition for more urbanized societies with simultaneusly efficient improvements in the social sector, or perhaps improvements in the food production (fx reduced dependency on imports), possibly successfully taking use alternative energy sources could reduce problems that in the long run arise from dependency on oil; perhaps as well producing more specialized products that precede some generating demand and/or fx forming partnerships with related small and other nations. In some countries, where there's solar available and used, this may perhaps show a such trend taking place in adjacent areas. In general it is more supposable to expect occasional success stories (some more continuous, some perhaps on less firm ground). Also, basic needs like schooling and health care, sanitation systems, as well as democratic government are probable prerequisitives. As well, investments by international community can play a role with perhaps support on new technology areas, for smaller companies fx. But it is also noted mostly this hasn't earlier been found happening where there hasn't preceded in existence the developed infrastructure, like roads, ports, telecom, energy, etc (Wikjman-Afifi 2002, p. 141). Anyway the overall transition will happen slower, most change being from rural economics towards the urbanized way of life, probably.
-2019-
Within markets for alternatives for gasoline in cars fuels, PEVs may have reached slightly more numerous in numbers, mainly in the Northern hemisphere of the world. However, the actual breakthrough will probably partially depend from the development of oil prices (according to some estimates the next oil price rallye is predicted around 2013-153, but it could pass to later years as well. This seems supposable because of recently reached 'all-time hikes'. The timing for expected emergence of renewable fueled consumer cars in market is difficult to estimate with certainty. So The EVs probably will gain some market as well as the hybrids becoming more common(especially in cities, and used in urban areas where travel distances would be short - the increase would take place mostly probably in much urbanized countries, like Britain that currently was developing EVs favoring plans as part of its renewable programs). More globally these possibly start to common no sooner than after the 2020s. And, gasoline fueled vehicles will still govern market of the most economies until about 2030-40s, on developing countries likely some decades even after that. Also, Hydrogen fueled cars are often expected to gain markets around 2040-50s.
--/--
Various global problems are expected to mark the turn of the decade; shortages of food in parts of the world, possible shortages from fuels, and most worries have been in scenarios predicted to arise from problems in water adequacy in agricultural uses. At some areas production and harvests are expected to still increase, and this probably also affects the resulting development of food markets. And the climatic problem (raise of temperatures) and its effects for the food production generates also other questions. More heat resistant crops are probably already in development and also more effective improvements in farming methods and better productivity (fertilizers use/organic production both probably have their benefits and disadvantages) may have some effect. The actual difficulties/most suitable solutions also vary between different geographic zones, most probably. In some places this also was already seen leading in changes of cultivated plants and the markets targeted(fx coffee plantations abandoning that market for fx bio-oils production), likely development.
Along with the overall population increase, there is a strong possibility of increase in threats of malnutrition, water scarcity and (ao) desertification/land degradation problems (most directly concerning the Africa, where also a mass increase in number of refugees is expected, see fx; "Looming desertification could spawn millions of environmental refugees" - and if any past history can give some advice, the unforeseen numbers in refugees seems more than probable). Also, political decisions made in time about the global food politics would be needed in any of the possible scenarios to be seen. At the same time, also urbanization and other developments related will continue in the continent (and elsewhere).
-2020-
During following period (say 2020-2030) a major nuclear power plant accident is possible to happen because many of the older plants have at the time become such aged and continued use increases risks. The possibility is more likely in the countries where such high-tech power is recently taken in use; the extended use of plants continued over time of the original life-span; the usage includes military intentioned production; and/or if the (international) maintenance and control for some reason inadequate. The older from the IIIrd generation reactors kept use are more vulnerable to the risk (if not replaced in time with newer ones having the internal reactor turn-off systems in case problems happen/take place). The possible accident could be in scale to any of the known previous nuclear facility accidents that have been generally publicized4. Of course, there's equal possibility of any other as disastrous(if not comparable in the long-term environmental results) industrial accident to happen.
-2021-
Space-tourism reaches a new record of 500 participants in year. Much of this due to reason that it is been internationally banned the following year, because of caused unnecessary stress for now more vulnerable atmosphere. The ozone layer is saved from yet another burden with the decision, but in spite of that lobbers for the celebrity holiday travels defend their business by the benefits for 'scientific use' (like climate observations, etc). Thanks to decision further space-holidays are prohibited, until around some decades later less harmful rocket-fuels are taken in use and a new generation of 'space-trippers' head for their taste from orbit and the magnicifient views. Others will still have to satisfy for Google-Earths space exploration extension. /
Another stress for atmosphere, the data centers are expected (by varying estimates, some say around 2030s) to reach the same level in GHS-emissions as the airline industry in total. Increase in use of networks, and more numbers in servers are most apparent reasons, amounts of E-waste increases from fx the necessary upgrades needed periodically for the equipment periodically another consequence. Improved energy efficiency is targeted by various companies and helps (as well as gives points in publics eyes), but there's also multitudes of more careless use and users. In the case of airline industry, part of the trend is explained by limits on its growth being reached before and also less polluting kerosenes in use. In total, there is amounts of new traffic both in highways, airways and the cyberspace.
-2022-
Development in consumer electronics and small-scaled technologies now push to markets many 'advanced external aids' (like in the hearing aids + medical devices, sports carriages, wider uses of electronic/DNA-fingerprinting in consumer market products). The process is making progress in during times and obviously this also includes fx. Miniaturized communication devices, some more improvements and spread in wireless video-transmission networks and devices and the multitude of other improving stuff for measurement, data-storage, photo copying/delivering, etc, etc. Some new stuff may see an even larger markets in overall (like mobile phones from early 1990s to more recent days), but all this is likely to happen in shorter periods of time and would be more related to developments of some other adjacent areas. /
At the time (as result from some former experiments of bioengineering(see note 2) animals - some of the better known examples developed fx for wiping out boll worms and other pests - may be found causing 'unexpected' effects in nature. For example, there may be in some areas ecological balance becoming changed as result of these new transgenetic5 animals and/or some other consequences not before seen and not have expected to result (could be just as simple as some species gaining in numbers due that some of their 'enemies' are reduced, which affects eco-system and other populations by more permanent manner). Shortly, in the most cases concerning these, if actually released in the wild, nobody can be quite sure from the resulting long-term effects (which is of course reason these to have been developed more quietly and not as widely in use as GMO-crops, which recently were planted and used in at least few dozen countries). But, in this timescale it is quite possible these as well may (have?) show the 'gene flow' between natural and modified ones, (for some reason) having taken place...
-2023-
-2024-
Also waste/pollution increases in the seas simultaneously with continued overfishing and could possibly result to further collapses in the sea food production as well as more limited animal biodiversity. The aquaculture and farmed fisheries being developed more environmentally friendly sustainable directions seems most promising alternative if developed to possible directions balancing these effects. The actual scope of the seas degradation we can't predict but in general the Oceans are found to have become more acidic, more polluted, and also more unpredictable concerning the (global) warmings effects. There may be enlargement of the so called 'dead zones', especially in certain shallow seas one would suppose. Some predictions also give suppositions from losses in food-chains, the coastal regions becoming more constructed and built, previous causing weakened changes of the reproduction for some species. As well as some other similarly negative consequences predicted.
-2025-
First human expedition to make permanent base in Mars is being launched. Simultaneously last from other 'final frontiers', the abysses in the seas are also being examined further and wider than before seen. Unfortunately (but in some cases with utilities concerning the environment as well) this may lead in efforts to take the natural resources of these areas in increased use. Total scope of new techniques and development is more difficult to outline, but the positive results (possibly) include improvements in knowledge from these areas and uses of (energy-) sources like thermal energy in the seas, fx. As co-result several formerly unknown deep sea marine species are found and calculated, which is relieving since some from the better known ones are supposed/found having became extinct/diminished remarkably in their known range. Also, the melting may have resulted in some inland/mountain glaciers to have reduced in scale, which probably also (in some cases) leads to the increased use of certain natural sources in the areas.
-2026-
Adapt or die. Polar Bears die out in their natural living areas (in during decade). Most pack ice of the North Pole may appear disappeared (the more steep threats in global climate scenarios mentioned are disturbances for planets albedo, and possible 'domino-effect', however we won't predict for the reason there isn't so far any sufficient information available/been created from the actual scope of the problem.) As for the bears survival, individuals in zoo's are well maintained, but species eventual fate remains problematic. Luckily, and surprisingly, surviving population remnants are found newly inhabiting some of the adjacent northern archipelagos but also having started mixing with some of the regular bears populations. The situation is hoped to be helped with conservation and re-introducing individuals in the wild from the zoo's existing stocks. Remains a problematic ethical-ecologic question for the following times.
-2027-
An overall emergence and formation of the 21st 'values and habitats' takes place more slowly but surely. Differences in between geographical and cultural areas are still big, as well as the divide between the rich and the poor. (Some) overall statistic about 'average individual' could see trends like the following; a typical citizen spends about 1-2 hours from free time in networks (Internet or its successors, more in many countries because equally vast number of people don't still have the possibility), works about 6-14 hours a day(of course varies as well as does in-between the professions and countries), watches TV/other such medias about the same as today, exercises a bit less (previously said per day estimates) and is generally a slightly healthier (but generally eats less healthy/inadequately); has about 2.59 kids(varies even more), reads generally less but the time spend in communication space' and networks/similar compensates this by some amount, is slightly less religious, divorces and re-marrying (at least with some 'official' agreement, if not always by religious ceremony) 10-20 per cent more common (average marrying age probably raised for several years), the general life expectancy perhaps 5-10 years longer.
-2028-
Ever more solutions for tackling the Climate Change are considered, despite that fossil emissions reduction has seen considerably advanced. Problem of the climatic ballast still remains heavy and there may also be new environmental questions emerged/found. New inventions could include more efficient solar panels developed with nanotechs, either placed on Earths ground or at space-orbit, techniques to filter the excess CO2 from air, and arrival of new/improved energy sources. Also the Geo-engineering6 may now have again emerged with some support and additional proposed solutions by some decision-makers and scientist. Some more conventional projects, having been in preparation for longer time may be taken in effective and safe use, but its hard to say how effective those could be. In general, no 'quick fix' for the problem is to be found and around, but such efforts are occasionally proposed and there's various businesses in this area to be seen and also completely new methods to reduce CO2 from atmosphere may have been invented (As well as the increasingly larger amount of energy should be able to produce with alternative, less pollutive methods).
-2029-
The richest man in the world(no chances to be a woman, even considering that now among 50 richest there probably is some...) reaches remarkable sum of 100 Bn worth of cash, stocks, investments and other ownings. However, there is some dispute from him being the richest of all times as well, since the estimated average medium income levels from earliest times aren't known with certainty, and also statistics from bkt's in-between the past times and present can't be compared with any reliability.
--/--
The environmentally most stressed decade this far. Warming has advanced, though hopefully with slightly lowering pace. Further ecologic destruction possible. Oceans are found to be far worse state than before, but most problems may be apparent/found in form of oxygen loss in certain sea-areas and depthtitudes. Droughts, soil degradation and water supply for farming needs probably are found causing losses for the agricultural production, more or less globally. If emissions reductions are being successful (in the developed countries so far mostly, but now increasingly elsewhere too...) and the food production not affected too badly, the (world) population increase growth perhaps won't turn out quite as alarming question as it other ways will. The decade also sees some political turmoil, but we don't predict that any more specifically.
-2030-
About 5.3 billion people (from the total of around 7-8 Bn)7 will be living in the cities and problems about traffic, consumption, smog, housing, noise, waste disposal, are at levels not before seen. Probably due the transportation needs more of the aerial space is taken in use with fx hovercraft buses (or similar). The solutions for tackling urban waste and reduction of pollutive gases from fx transportation economics may differ lot between individual cities and places, probably. Also ecologic/aesthetic town-planning can have positive consequences, where taken in use on the planning stage as well as the improved recycling practices. Other as well important matters may concern fx food safety and water supply issues. Food markets globally and probably also ready-made foods markets specifically probably keep increasing. Also this has consequences on farming/cultivation practices, because often larger amounts of the grains, flours, and other provisions will have to be brought from more distant rural areas (and/or imported). Global market probably grows both more enlarged, but maybe less concentrated on certain products (like coffee, sugar, etc). According to FAOs short-term estimates, both production and consumption are growing faster in the developing countries than in OECD countries in all products (except wheat). The export growth in developing countries is also greater, but also greater increased vulnerability and uncertainty from food supplies are expected, and especially the domestic supply capacity therefore in overall structure where agriculture operates becomes more important (Agricultural Outlook 2007-2018. OECD FAO, 2007a). In the long-term similar trend seems at the least supposable, as well as the climate effects concerning food trade and food safety.
-2031-
Just another species, one from the threatened big cats still left, dies out in the wild fx because disappearance of the prey, habitat destruction and some other reasons related to climatic changes. Subsequent years it is noticed that also populations in worlds zoo's are threateningly low and could soon face similar fate. Efforts to bring this noteworthy species back from the rink of extinction are started, with more traditional methods, but with cloning as well, where cats are being reproduced with the aid of introduced DNA from some relative species. As result, the population is recovered and visitors of the zoo's have something new and exciting to watch again. Unfortunately, due only limited research and knowledge earlier done on that species particular genetic structure, and in spite of the several comparable experiments been succesfully carried out earlier, the cloned ones appear to have limited life-span, suffer from birth-defects and the breeding success remains low. Another row of experiments to produce improved cells and recombinant mitochondria with the co-species gene pools offerings is carried, but now there's unwillingness to allow use of the few surviving real specimen's DNA (and their genetic stock also appears weakened). Eventually, after various debates against and pro, the new 'corrected' clones are finally ready, and all this leads in effort to re-introduce them in the wild (the original ones remaining in isolated groups in some zoo's). However, the process appears difficult. Partly this is because the few suitable forests/ other areas available are quite populated with other surviving cats left (and similar predators), so the population of clones are slow to catch on in the wild and likely to lose in competition from available prey and habitat area. Further efforts on the project continues until latter part of century, say 2050s.
-2032-
TV channels and broadcasting are basically completely fused to new efficient networks (in many parts of the world). As parallel development the TV sees partial disappearance as the other forms of entertainment in cyber-matrixes are found become more popular (especially among the younger). In many places, especially in the cities the Internet also is partially replaced with more local mesh-nets that hold the same data/contents available. There may be simultaneously several of these (in use of the participant). They are local extensions in the global net with various maintainers (like cities, companies, fx) and special purposes, and basically serve as some kinds of 'localized vestibules' for the global net. These offer more direct/faster wireless connections to much of the data available also in more distant servers, in similar manner as much of that is transmissioned/operates in Internet nowadays. Typical platforms include fx virtualized chats and other such cyberlife-forms/living rooms, but also more traditional applications like some based on Google Earth's later formations will be in use. Textual nets as the current Internet in its form is supposed to still exist, but their use may be little less popular because of the newer more popular technologies. Typical more advanced UI(User Interfaces) probably resembles something like the ones seen in scifi-movie Minority Report (2002), because early versions from such things were on the market some years back.
-2033-
Solar energy production has increased for an amount of 50 to 100 times the currently generated , but fulfills still only 4-10 per cent from global energy needs. Wind 6-12 per cent. Hydro to 6-10 per cent. Geothermal 4-8 per cent. But all these vary probably a lot in between geographical zones and (our) estimates are just guessing. Fossil emissions have reduced the same/slightly greater amount, natural gas use increased similarly. Since development of renewables and the other alternative methods (largest the nuclear energy production) only corresponds slightly more than expected increase in the most optimistic scenario, the energy efficiency and reduction in overall pollution of fossil energies as well reduction of the CO2 released in transportation economy will have become even more important. And the actual realization of renewables use depends probably most from the official programs at the developed nations and also (partly) the possible funding for their starting in the developing world. Existing capacities already used of course vary in between countries. Most supposable still, because the total global primary energy demand expands by 45 per cent until 2030, average growth being 1.6 per cent a year (WEO - Fact Sheet, 2008), that production with any singular method can't be increased that exponentially to make the expected demand, not to mention reduction needed in fossil energies.
-2034-
This year/time could – if the worst expectations come true and things turn out bad - show the actual 'tipping point'. How relevant the possibility and the actual scope it would take is not quite easily estimated, since actually there's not any previous example from climatic changes happening in similar scale and rate (by human caused factors - nobody actually knows what the most probable scenario would be). The 'positive feedback'-effect as result of all the melting, etc. isn't the only threat, though most alarming it may be. Several (possible) more limited scenarios show some worrisome prospective points as well ; these could mean (but not necessary and neither would be limited to) destruction/changes in the Arctic and Antarctic animal species reproduction/survival ; the further disappearance of rain forests, as well as their various species - forest fires, a major threat, are expected to increase anyway; the degradation and disappearance of corals(fx Great Barrier Reef); drying of the many important wet-lands and loss in their biodiversity, fx. Many of the above permanent losses in eco-systems, that we won't expect to see, but can't exclude the possibility (in this scenario).
-2035-
The world religions remain as widely practiced as today; Christianity being most common in numbers with most believers. Islam remain the 2nd and Hinduism in 4th place (third numerous group contains various forms of non-religiousness; atheists/agnosticism and other secularism)8. In total, we don't expect any big chances in these during the first decades of the century. As an curious example, a new kind of 'creed'; 'transhuman scientific believership' could be expected to gain grounds among some of the political and monetary decision makers; this appears mainly as non-religiousness, atheism, but also loans some philosophic base from various (quasi-scientific) doctrines, biotechnologics and also from mystic cults. This 'creed' gains generally small number of supporters, but yet becomes a certain kind of curiosity example among the 'cultural/politic elite'. More problematic (for the participants) appears its noisy extreme-wing that brings front arguments reminding those expressed in the 19/20th century social darwinism and the eugenics. These, as some other new (religious) sects come and go (during decades), but in general the trend is expected to be towards more secularization (though, sometimes may be seen also new religious awakenings with new religious movements forming even).
-2036-
The bunch of synthetic life-forms and artificially born 'micro-organisms' have been produced in labs and cultivation pools for some time now, but we suppose their larger emergence in real uses not until around this time. From the tasks expected, the most advertised at the moment is the potential for energy production. The visions/results from the field of the advanced synthetic biology, would/will also include possibilities to 'program' the created organisms for turning plants to fuels in certain cultivation/farming pools. Also creating cleaner energies is another field that seems give grounds for lot promises (one advertised use would be to develop the modified organisms capturing released carbon dioxides from released gases at power plants and making these converting the pollutants to natural gas). Similarly effective use planned is the techniques of producing hydrogen directly from from the sunlight, with the aid of 'genetic programming' the organisms for the use in photosynthesis (or something like that...). As previous are just some mentions in the informative briefing at Scientific American 9/2006, there's probably other directions/fields of research these technologies will have developed until the timing here. Also these can be of use in lab-research for test purposes etc, like perhaps concerning medicinery. And its easy also to think about some more imaginary possible uses for the 'technology' in everyday products; fx synthetic botoxin programmed behaving more flexibly in uses of plastic surgery, sweepers for wiping which use variables of synthetic bacteria to decompose dirt to molecules, synthetic (small) artificial organisms sold in the pet trade, etc... However, the actual time of appearance seems difficult to estimate, not the least because synthetic biology also creates several controversial questions that may concern human health and ethics as well; these are fx questions of biosecurity, -safety, etc. And also due that reason, the possible actual use and resulting 'products' would probably be kept under strict supervision for quite some time(like some similar adjacent fields nowadays).
-2037-
One of the few “great” art works of the 21st century is created. This is based on expectation that cultural complexity further increases and people globally are supposedly finding less common and universally shared values in such creations/experiences. In general this is also partly resulting from (current) state where the art has become integrated (more than before)in part of the consumeristic and middle-class culture. Its qualities and specialities are expected in some levels to be more fused in various human everyday practices and fx increasing number of people participate in forms of 'artistic' production at social nets/cyberspace/work. On the other hand, more people probably are taking part in creation of arts that would have become more typical in the times, like environmentalistic art and such that use recycled materials and public space in part of the actual (art)object /process of creation. Anything of the previous, also, doesn't exclude/predict the disappearance of the 'art world' where fx objects valued worth millions (of Euros) are still being sold and as well we expect that multitudes of non-conformist art flourish around the world. More of the latter will be co-operatively created and some of it takes form in part of the 'resistance' against the late (forms of) capitalism. So, the areas of art are going to have become more common part in the everyday-life, but more inconspicious and at the same time the universality of these experiences is going to continue the change towards more fragmented form.
-2038-
In various Islands at worlds Oceans, the raising levels of sea and erosion as result are expected eat away areas from the coastal lines and lower grounds. Some islands, in the parts of Pacific fx where exist various separate Islands or groups of them, are expected to have sunk under the sea rise (could concern some other places as well). Current estimates give these incidents a timing somewhat around until half of the century. In some islands generally at higher grounds, are also expected to have lost some 5 to 20 per cent of agricultural land, possibly some decades further. Also, in the mid and high latitude islands is expected alien species invasions (and causing also reductions in for authentic animals populations).
-2039-
The (Sources) and Endnotes:
* The sources refered and (some) of the other material is presented in bibliography of the previous part. If not, these may be refered with hyper-links in this text. *
1. E-paper, developed by fx Epson is a thin electronic paper sheet that can be curled up. So it has more qualities similar to those of the traditional paper than the E-books. Solutions in the range of regular customers (in prices) are probable to arrive in consumer markets within some years (but won't make this any real cheap alternative to traditional papers for some time, still).
2. The Nanoparticles are planned and created for various purposes and technologies; fx they are mentioned already used in some textiles developed and sold for human use. And have also for some time been developed for improving efficiency of solar cells; as well as other advancements and various uses of the technology probably are in use, though there isn't a uniform certainty from some the possible side-effects.
For the term Bioengineering Answers.com (13.4.2009) dictionary gives (us) two definitions; “1. The application of engineering principles to the fields of biology and medicine, as in the development of aids or replacements for defective or missing body organs. Also called biomedical engineering. 2. Genetic engineering.” (but we suppose, in common language it is more generally now used as synonymous to the latter definition, especially after the latter has become less favorable term in general use). Sometimes bioengineering, at least earlier, possibly was also used in meaning planning and constructing a (small scale) projects in the wild nature/landscape, fx constructing structures to strenghten river banks.
3. From the oil prices and markets development we are basically guessing, because fx at the time of recent oil prices heights period similar arguments were often raised in discussion at the news. Mostly this is often related to speculations from the peak oil being reached sooner times / would happen in close years. This Guardian newsbrief preceding the latest oil price heights, mentions IEAs estimates supposing oil to peak in between 2013-2030. On the other hand World Energy Outlook doesn't expect that before 2030, though global demand is expected to remain on raise and the conventional oil production to increase only slightly from 2007 to 2030 (WEO - Fact Sheet, 2008). For the reason that this will probably have some effect on various other things predicted in these clairvoyances, we are simple supposing the recent price heights probably can repeat itself but no sooner than 2015, and this could go completely other ways as well (like most things in the world).
4. This can mean anything on scale of the better known major disasters in nuclear plants/facilities; Wikipedia links list from the most severe; Mayak (1957, 1968) , Windscale (1957) / Three Mile Island(1979) , Chernobyl (1986) , Tokaimura(1999) ; Also fx Chalk River (1952) and Saint-Laurent (1969 and 1980) and Lucensi (1969) represent some of the accidental problems/reactor faults that have happened.
5. Answers.com search of definition (13.4.2009) for transgenesis gives as result: “The transfer of cloned genetic material from one species or breed to another.” Transgenesis is executed in between organisms that are unrelated and therefore could not occur naturally, cisgenesis means the same in between related organisms (could occur naturally). Genetically modified plants and foods (GMO) are the best known examples, but also other research in such genetics has been the commonplace field for some time now, like in the projects aiming to create transgenetic insects as substitutes for pesticides; fx this link to a little older post (from 2001) combines a few (news-)briefings from the earliest debates and controversies (i.e. 'Frankenbugs on the Wings' ; 'Environmental preview of the precedent-setting genetically engineered insect release found inadequate'; 'Bioengineered bugs Stir Dreams of Scientists: Will they Fly?') and also contains list ('A swarm of biobugs on the horizon') from such experiments that were then under research for possible use at the time.
But, today there seems to be quite a lot more experiments on the transgenetic animals been carried out, fx examples of salmons engineered to grow a lot faster than their natural cousins, aquarium fishes modified with fluorescent genes from jellyfish to glow in the dark, and for the food production fx 'hilariously' named Enviropig (genetically modified pigs that don't produce as much phosphorus in their manure and therefore doesn't cause as much pollution for the waters), as well as other variations of genetical experiments on domestic animals. Also, in addition to this 'ordinary transgenesis', fx according to this article there already are plantations/exists modified trees in the wild (there is also mentioned possibilities to produce trees engineered with "...ability to put bacteria or even a fish gene into a tree" ...don't know if a more specified term for this sort of transgenesis is been invented). Anyway projects of planting the modified 'Supertrees' were still few years ago carried out in larger scale only in China (But could already be a more regular practise in elsewhere as well because the commercial markets also had already been on planning stage for some time, and the article also cites argument sayin that regulations for were needed, for; "...talking about potentially millions of acres of genetically engineered trees." And all this was taking place, even though the article also mentions several possible long-term results that were possible to be happening in the nature, mostly from pollination, modified trees contaminating the natural ones). Today it may have been seen taken a few steps further, though for us (in MSW) the search only gave the situation from few years ago; but if thinking one can learn from the past days, there's a few more words about bioengineering forests in this related article... And of course plenty more projects exist on similar esperiments and fields of genetics, like the transgenetic domestic animals (like cattle) made to grow and produce meat faster fx, though we're not bothering to list them here more precisely.
6. Geo-engineerings possibilities have perhaps become more popular recently, sometimes seen as an accompanying strategy in reducing greenhouse emission cuts. Effective large-scale techniques are in general estimated to be costly fx. regarding the technical preparations needed, and also, these could/have the potential to cause (significant) environmental damage as well if found unsuccessfull/misused. But, some limited projects have already been carried out and there is possibility of more to be seen of this field; various current techniques proposed and their critique can be read from the Wiki-article from geo-engineering, fx.
7. UN (United Nations) recent estimates calculate world population to reach about 9.2 to 9.5 Bn in 2050. Worlds urban dwellers are expected to increase from 3.4 to 6.4 Bn, practically doubling during that period (and about the size of the total population currently). Most of that development, as well as the population growth would be happening in Africa (and Asia, where half of the population, current trend continuing, would be living in urban areas until 2025). Also, the development is expected to differ by some amount in between individual countries; in some regions cities make the most of the urban population increase(also by absorbing the adjacent areas), elsewhere the process is expected take place merely in the development of rural areas towards smaller towns and suburbs, etc. (UN Press Conference on World Urbanization Prospects [2008 report]; see: http://www.un.org/News/briefings/docs/2008/080226_Zlotnik.doc.htm). Our estimate on urbanization development in 2030 is roughly based on these expectations, but we also held the supposition that main part of the development would (until the 2030s at least) still mostly would be seen in larger cities (in their growth/cities absorbing the near areas in that development. A number of world 'Mega-cities' is in the UN Report expected to increase for 27, until 2025). Though, some views also give estimates from population growh having slowed down a bit more rapidly in recent times, which could impact the previous expectations, if reliably noticed being a continuous trend.
8. Ranking according the order presented in Wikipedia (the world religions) (13.9.2009) .
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